A computable general equilibrium model for coupled electricity-carbon market
電力-炭素市場連携のための応用一般均衡モデル (AI 翻訳)
Yang Li, Jing Liao, Yu Zhang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、電力市場と炭素市場を統合した静学的応用一般均衡（CGE）モデルを開発し、中国湖南省のデータを用いて炭素税、排出量取引（ETS）、およびそれらの組み合わせの効果を比較分析した。結果は、同じ削減目標ならETSは電力マークアップに依存し消費者価格を引き上げる一方、税とETSの併用は市場安定化と負担軽減に有効であることを示した。電力セクターへの影響は限定的だが、電力多消費型製造業に負担が集中する。
English
This paper develops a static CGE model coupling macroeconomy, electricity, and carbon markets into a unified SAM-consistent system, calibrated to Hunan Province, China. It compares carbon tax, emissions trading system (ETS), and their combination, finding that ETS relies more on electricity mark-ups and raises consumer prices compared to a tax with similar ambition, while combining both instruments stabilizes the permit market and reduces reliance on the electricity channel, easing effective surcharges. Electricity output and power-sector emissions fall modestly, with burdens concentrated in electricity-intensive manufacturing chains.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも2023年度からの排出量取引制度（GXリーグ）本格運用や炭素税導入議論が進む中、本論文のCGEモデルは電力市場と炭素市場の結合分析を精緻に行っており、日本における制度設計（特に電力多消費産業への影響評価）に示唆を与える。ただし、中国省レベルのデータに基づくため、日本の制度や電力市場構造への直接適用には注意が必要。
In the global GX context
As carbon pricing mechanisms (ETS, carbon tax) expand globally with ISSB/TCFD reporting, this paper offers a rigorous CGE framework for assessing interaction between electricity and carbon markets, which is critical for understanding cost pass-through and sectoral impacts. While calibrated to China, the methodology is transferable to other regions adopting carbon pricing, including the EU ETS and emerging schemes in the US and Asia.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A unified CGE model for electricity-carbon market coupling, with comparative statics of tax, ETS, and their combination.
🏢実務担当者:Insight into how carbon pricing design (tax vs ETS) differentially affects electricity costs and supply-chain burdens, aiding risk assessment.
🏛政策担当者:Model demonstrates trade-offs between instrument choice and distributional impacts, useful for designing carbon pricing packages.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Electricity is a pivotal conduit through which carbon pricing transmits to the real economy, yet most evaluations still analyse power markets and macro linkages separately. We develop a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that couples the macroeconomy with electricity and carbon markets in a social accounting matrix (SAM)-consistent unified system. The model is calibrated to a single-year input-output (IO)/SAM and emissions accounts, and used for comparative statics. Compliance costs enter activity zero-profit conditions, while the ensdogenous permit price feeds into electricity buyer prices through a single pass-through rate. We evaluate a carbon tax, an emissions trading system, their combination, and pass-through sensitivities. The methodology is utilised on real data for Hunan Province in China. Results show clear instrument differentiation. Relative to a tax of similar ambition, emissions trading relies more on electricity mark-ups and tends to raise consumer prices while delivering comparable aggregate abatement. Combining instruments stabilises the permit market and tempers reliance on the electricity channel, easing effective surcharges. Across pricing regimes, electricity output and power-sector emissions fall modestly yet robustly, with burdens concentrated along Hunan’s electricity-intensive manufacturing chains. Stronger pass-through mostly affects the distribution of costs, with limited impact on the overall economy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1049/icp.2026.1749first seen 2026-07-14 04:47:54
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