Balancing carbon and costs: unveiling the carbon sequestration potential and opportunity costs of set-aside beech-dominated forest enterprises
炭素とコストのバランス：ブナ優占林の保護による炭素隔離ポテンシャルと機会費用の解明 (AI 翻訳)
Cornelius Regelmann, Marlen Brinkord, Joachim Rock, Björn Seintsch, Matthias Dieter
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、ブナ優占林において丸太生産を停止し「カーボンファーミング」事業モデルに移行した場合の気候緩和効果を、200年後の森林経済シミュレーションで評価した。RCP4.5とRCP8.5の気候シナリオ下での追加炭素隔離量はそれぞれ740、700t CO2/haに達し、機会費用は追加隔離率の低下に伴い時間とともに一定となる。炭素クレジットで評価した場合、損益分岐CO2価格は割引率に応じて€25～33/t CO2と推定され、長期的な炭素獲得が可能であるが、初期の気候便益と丸太収入のトレードオフが存在する。本研究は、森林所有者や政策立案者に意思決定の指針を提供する。
English
This study uses a 200-year forest economic simulation to compare business-as-usual roundwood production with a forest set-aside (carbon farming) scenario in beech-dominated forests. Additional carbon sequestration under set-aside reaches 740 t CO2/ha (RCP4.5) and 700 t CO2/ha (RCP8.5). Opportunity costs remain relatively constant while break-even CO2 prices range from €25 to €33 per t CO2 depending on discount rate. The findings reveal significant long-term carbon gains but temporal trade-offs with income from roundwood, providing guidance for forest owners and policymakers.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は森林面積が多く、J-クレジット制度などを通じた森林炭素隔離の活用が進んでいる。本論文は、ドイツのブナ林を対象としているが、長期的な炭素隔離と経済的機会費用のトレードオフを定量的に示しており、日本の森林経営やカーボンオフセット政策の設計において参考となる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a detailed economic model for forest-based carbon sequestration, a key nature-based solution in global climate mitigation. It aligns with the growing interest in carbon credits and the role of forests in national climate accounts (e.g., under the Paris Agreement). The break-even CO2 price analysis offers a practical metric for designing incentive mechanisms and evaluating trade-offs between carbon storage and timber production, relevant to both European and global forest policy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust simulation framework for assessing long-term carbon sequestration vs. economic returns in forest ecosystems.
🏢実務担当者:Offers forest owners and carbon project developers quantitative estimates of carbon credits potential and break-even costs for setting aside beech forests.
🏛政策担当者:Delivers evidence on opportunity costs and carbon pricing levels needed to incentivize forest set-asides as a climate mitigation strategy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract The discontinuation of roundwood production and the change to a ‘carbon farming’ business model in beech ( Fagus sylvatica )–dominated commercial forest enterprises have been proposed as a potential climate‐mitigation strategy. This study employs a forest economic simulation model over a 200-year horizon to compare a managed business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a forest set-aside (FSA) scenario with ‘carbon farming’ instead of roundwood production. Climate-sensitive survival probabilities, parameterised under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, have been incorporated to reflect future mortality risks. Under FSA, additional carbon sequestration across aboveground and belowground biomass, and coarse woody debris reaches 740 t CO 2 ha −1 (RCP 4.5) and 700 t CO 2 ha −1 (RCP 8.5) when compared to BAU. Opportunity costs, measured as forgone net roundwood revenues, remain relatively constant over time as additional sequestration rates decline. Monetising sequestration via carbon credits yields break-even CO 2 prices of approximately €33 t −1 CO 2 at a 1% discount rate, €28 t −1 CO 2 at 1.5%, and €25 t −1 CO 2 at 2%. The results indicate that the set-aside of roundwood production in beech-dominated forest enterprises can deliver significant long-term carbon gains but entails temporal trade-offs between early climate benefits and sustained income from roundwood utilisation. The study’s outcomes aim to guide forest owners, policymakers, and other stakeholders involved in forest policy, carbon sequestration, and forest conservation in making informed decisions about discontinuing roundwood production in beech forest enterprises as a carbon sequestration strategy, while also providing estimates of the associated opportunity costs. Overall, this research contributes to the scientific understanding of the complex interactions between carbon sequestration and economic factors, offering a case study from Germany that can serve as a valuable reference for decision-making in other Central European regions with beech forest enterprises facing similar challenges.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-026-01876-8first seen 2026-07-13 06:11:56
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