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Coupled Trading in the Electricity–Carbon–Certificate Market Under the Carbon Tax Mechanism: Evidence from China

炭素税メカニズム下における電力・炭素・証明書市場の連動取引：中国からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)

Lizhi Cui, Qianhui Shi

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-22#炭素価格Origin: CN
DOI: 10.3390/su18115241
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115241

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、炭素税と排出権取引（CET）およびグリーン証書（TGC）の連動をシステムダイナミクスモデルで分析。中国を対象に、炭素税50元/トン初期導入で再生可能エネルギー投資が向上し、CET価格に応じた最適な税水準（60元/トン時は50元、100元以上時は30元）を提案する。政策シナリオによる定量ツールを提供。

English

This paper constructs a system dynamics model coupling carbon tax, carbon emission trading (CET), and tradable green certificate (TGC) markets in China. It finds that a carbon tax of 50 CNY/ton significantly boosts renewable investment, and optimal tax rates depend on CET prices: 50 CNY/ton when CET stabilizes at 60 CNY/ton, 30 CNY/ton when CET exceeds 100 CNY/ton. Provides quantitative policy tools for sustainable energy transition.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本でも炭素税と排出量取引の併用が検討される中、中国の実証例は参考になる。特にグリーン証書市場との連動は、日本の非化石価値取引やJクレジットとの統合議論に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

As jurisdictions like the EU and US explore carbon pricing integration, this Chinese study offers empirical evidence on coupling carbon tax with ETS and renewable certificates. It provides a modeling framework for harmonizing multiple policy instruments to avoid fragmentation, relevant for global carbon pricing design.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:A system dynamics framework for modeling cross-market coupling under carbon tax, with calibration using Chinese data; useful for extending to other regions.

🏢実務担当者:Insights on how carbon tax levels can be coordinated with ETS and renewable certificate prices to optimize investment signals.

🏛政策担当者:Quantitative evidence on optimal carbon tax rates relative to ETS prices, offering guidance for designing integrated carbon pricing systems.

📄 Abstract（原文）

The sustainable transition of power systems is currently hindered by fragmented carbon pricing systems and insufficient cross-market synergies. Considering this, we herein construct a system dynamics model of carbon tax regulation under conditions integrating electricity markets, carbon emission trading (CET) markets, and tradable green certificate (TGC) markets using Vensim PLE 7.3.5 software. We also propose a price-matching mechanism and implementation pathway for carbon taxation and CET to advance low-carbon sustainable development. The simulation results show that the introduction of a carbon tax at an initial rate of 50 CNY per ton significantly improves renewable energy investment returns. Moreover, effective coordination between the carbon tax and CET reduces carbon emissions from the power system, delivering benefits in terms of both environmental and socio-economic sustainability. We further identify a dynamic coordination scheme consisting of a carbon tax with an initial rate of 50 CNY per ton, which is appropriate when the CET prices stabilize at approximately 60 CNY per ton. An initial rate of 30 CNY per ton is more suitable when the CET prices rise above 100 CNY per ton. These findings verify the optimal matching rules for carbon tax intensity under different carbon allowance price levels, and they also provide quantitative policy tools and empirical support for the scenario-based regulation of carbon pricing systems to achieve sustainable energy transition goals.

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