Understanding ESG-mediated climate risk impacts on corporate profits: sectoral dynamics and predictive evidence from an ADL–MIDAS framework
ESGが媒介する気候リスクの企業利益への影響：セクター別動態とADL-MIDASフレームワークによる予測的証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Haoxin Zhao, Kazeem O. Isah
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はADL-MIDASモデルを用いて、米国11セクターの企業利益に対する物理的・移行リスクの影響を分析。ESGは気候リスクの伝達経路としては僅かだが、予測モデルに組み込むことで精度が向上。セクター別の不均一性が確認され、特にエネルギー・金融は脆弱。
English
This study uses an ADL-MIDAS framework to examine how physical and transition climate risks affect sectoral corporate profits in the US. ESG plays a negligible mediating role but improves forecast performance when included. Results show significant sectoral heterogeneity, with Energy and Financials most exposed. The framework is replicable for assessing corporate vulnerability.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文の枠組みはSSBJに対応した気候リスク開示や、日本企業のセクター別脆弱性評価に応用可能。ESGの限定的な媒介効果は、日本におけるESG情報の役割を再考する契機となる。
In the global GX context
This study offers a tractable method for integrating high-frequency climate data into corporate profit forecasts, relevant for TCFD/ISSB implementation and transition finance. The finding that ESG improves predictive accuracy supports its use as a forward-looking indicator, not just a compliance metric.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel ADL-MIDAS approach combining high-frequency climate risk with quarterly profits and tests ESG mediation, with implications for climate finance methodology.
🏢実務担当者:Demonstrates how ESG scores can enhance profit forecasts under climate uncertainty, aiding resilience planning and risk management.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for sector-specific climate disclosure policies and the value of ESG information for systemic risk monitoring.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines how climate risk affects sectoral corporate profits in the USA and whether Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices condition these effects. Using an ADL–MIDAS framework, we combine quarterly profitability data for eleven GICS sectors with daily indicators of physical climate risk—capturing extreme weather events and temperature anomalies—and transition risk associated with climate policy and market adjustments. The results reveal substantial sectoral heterogeneity. Utilities, Industrials, and Consumer Staples exhibit relatively resilient responses to moderate climate variability, whereas Energy and Financials remain more exposed to both physical disruptions and regulatory transitions. Mediation analysis indicates that ESG accounts for only a negligible share of the transmission of climate-related effects. However, incorporating ESG directly into the predictive framework significantly improves both in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast performance. These findings suggest that ESG contributes primarily through its stabilizing and forward-looking informational role rather than as a dominant transmission channel. The results have important implications for managers seeking to enhance operational resilience, investors incorporating climate-related risks into portfolio decisions, and policymakers aiming to strengthen disclosure frameworks and support resilience-enhancing investments. By integrating high-frequency climate risk indicators with sector-level ESG measures, this study provides a tractable and replicable framework for evaluating corporate vulnerability and adaptive capacity in a climate-exposed economic environment.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00181-026-02945-y.pdffirst seen 2026-07-05 05:49:17
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