Climate Risk and Capital Flows in Eastern European Emerging Markets: How Physical and Transition Risks Reshape Foreign Direct Investment Portfolios

日本語

この論文は、東欧新興市場（EEEM）における気候リスクが外国直接投資（FDI）に与える影響を分析。物理的リスク（異常気象）と移行リスク（EU ETSやCBAM）を分離し、ポーランド、ルーマニア、チェコ、ハンガリーなどの炭素集約型経済の脆弱性を指摘。炭素価格の上昇は従来型製造業FDIを抑制する一方、物理的リスクはソブリン債スプレッドを拡大し、グリーンフィールド投資を減少させるが、再生可能エネルギーへの投資を促進する。政策の更新と持続可能な投資誘致の必要性を提言。

English

This paper examines how climate-related risks—physical (extreme weather) and transition (EU ETS, CBAM)—affect Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Eastern European Emerging Markets (EEEMs). Focusing on Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, and Hungary, it finds that higher carbon prices reduce traditional manufacturing FDI, while greater physical risks increase sovereign bond spreads and decrease greenfield investments. However, these risks also boost renewable energy and green technology investments. The study recommends policy updates to mitigate stranded asset risks and attract sustainable investment.

日本のGX文脈において

本論文はEUの炭素国境調整（CBAM）が東欧新興市場への日本企業の投資戦略に直接影響する点で重要。日本企業が東欧に製造拠点を持つ場合、CBAMによるコスト増加や移行リスクへの対応が不可欠。また、再生可能エネルギー投資の機会増加も示唆されており、日本のGX投資戦略に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper is highly relevant for global investors and policymakers given the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its impact on Eastern European economies. It provides empirical evidence on how physical and transition risks reshape FDI flows, offering insights for multinational corporations adjusting their supply chains and investment portfolios in response to climate policies. The findings are valuable for transition finance and climate risk assessment in emerging markets.