Is Carbon Risk Always Bad News? The Impact of Carbon Risk on Financial Distress Based on China
炭素リスクは常に悪いニュースなのか？中国における炭素リスクの財務危機への影響 (AI 翻訳)
Weihua Qu, Z D Guo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本稿は、中国のパリ協定加盟を外生的ショックとして、差の差分析とダブル機械学習を組み合わせ、炭素リスクが企業の財務危機に与える影響を分析。高炭素排出企業は低炭素企業よりも財務危機に陥りにくいという結果が得られた。そのメカニズムとして、グリーンイノベーション効果、ESGパフォーマンス、メディア注目が正の調整効果を持つことを確認。さらにXGBoostとSHAPを用いて、炭素リスクが財務危機予測の精度を高めることを示した。
English
This paper examines the impact of carbon risk on corporate financial distress in China, using the Paris Agreement as an exogenous shock and combining difference-in-differences with double machine learning. It finds that high-carbon firms are significantly less likely to experience financial distress. The effect is positively moderated by green innovation, ESG performance, and media attention. Using XGBoost and SHAP, carbon risk improves the accuracy of financial distress prediction models.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国では高炭素企業が財務危機に陥りにくいという逆説的な結果は、日本における炭素リスク評価の前提に疑問を投げかける。ただし日本のSSBJやグリーンイノベーション政策との比較には留意が必要。
In the global GX context
This study challenges the conventional view that carbon risk always increases financial distress. The China-specific finding highlights the role of green innovation and government support, which has implications for global carbon risk assessment frameworks like TCFD and ISSB.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers can learn about the counterintuitive negative relationship between carbon risk and financial distress in China, and the use of ML methods for prediction.
🏢実務担当者:Practitioners may use the findings to reassess carbon risk as a factor in financial health, but must consider China-specific institutional contexts.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can note the role of green innovation and ESG in mitigating distress, informing low-carbon policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Global climate challenges and regulatory pressures have strengthened the link between carbon risk and corporate financial distress. We examine the impact of carbon risk on corporate financial distress and its underlying mechanisms using China’s accession to the Paris Agreement as an exogenous shock, employing a combination of difference-in-differences and double machine learning approaches. We find that high-carbon firms are significantly less likely to experience financial distress compared to low-carbon firms in China. Mechanism analysis indicates that the relationship between carbon risk and corporate financial distress is positively moderated by the green innovation effect, ESG performance, and media attention. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that carbon risk mitigates financial distress more pronouncedly in high-tech industries, high-pollution industries, competitive markets, and firms with strong environmental governance practices. Furthermore, we investigate whether carbon risk is an effective predictor of financial distress. Based on XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting, version Python 3.13) and SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) value analysis, we find that carbon risk significantly enhances the accuracy and explanatory power of financial distress prediction models. The results provide important guidance for policymakers in creating low-carbon strategies, businesses in improving financial management, and investors in assessing carbon risk.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14070836first seen 2026-07-15 05:08:50
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