A Scenario-Based Model of Energy Transition in Central and Eastern Europe: Implications for Energy Security and Decarbonization
中央・東欧におけるエネルギー転換のシナリオベースモデル：エネルギー安全保障と脱炭素への影響 (AI 翻訳)
Leszek Zelek
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中央・東欧11カ国を対象に、脱炭素目標とエネルギー安全保障を統合したエネルギー転換シナリオモデルを構築。高野心シナリオでは2050年に再エネ比率が60-80%、原子力が10-20%を維持し、電力需要が約120%増加する一方、一次エネルギー消費は減少。3つの転換モデル（再エネ主体、ハイブリッド、原子力主体）を特定し、地域の多様性を考慮した政策アプローチの必要性を提言。
English
This study develops a scenario-based model for energy transition in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, integrating decarbonization and energy security. The high ambition scenario achieves 60-80% renewable share and 10-20% nuclear by 2050, with electricity demand rising ~120% due to electrification. Three transition models (renewable-dominated, hybrid, nuclear-oriented) are identified, highlighting the need for differentiated policies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本もエネルギー安全保障と脱炭素の両立が課題だが、CEEは旧ソ連圏からEU加盟、ロシア依存からの脱却という独自性を持つ。本論文はハイブリッド型転換（再エネ＋原子力）の可能性を示し、日本の電源構成議論に示唆を与える。ただし、日本の原子力規制や地域特性の違いに注意。
In the global GX context
For global GX context, this paper offers a rigorous scenario framework for a region often overlooked in energy transition research. It balances decarbonization with energy security, relevant for ISSB/TCFD transition planning and stress testing under climate scenarios. The three transition models provide a typology that can inform comparative studies across regions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a scenario modeling framework for CEE that explicitly integrates energy security and decarbonization, useful for energy system modelers and transition scholars.
🏢実務担当者:Energy companies and utilities in CEE can use these scenarios for investment planning and regulatory engagement to align with EU climate targets.
🏛政策担当者:Offers differentiated transition models (renewable, hybrid, nuclear) for CEE policymakers to tailor strategies based on local infrastructure and geopolitical constraints.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines energy transition pathways in Central and Eastern Europe by integrating decarbonization goals with energy security requirements. The transition is shaped by two major challenges: reducing greenhouse gas emissions and ensuring stable energy supply under geopolitical uncertainty. Transition strategies include the expansion of renewable energy sources, electrification, diversification of supply, and the development of system flexibility. Using a scenario-based modeling framework aligned with international energy outlooks, this study analyzes the implications of different transition pathways for 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The results indicate that a high ambition scenario could increase the share of renewable energy sources to 60–80% of the energy mix by 2050, while maintaining 10–20% nuclear capacity to support system stability. At the same time, electricity demand could increase by approximately 120% due to transport and industrial electrification, despite decreasing total primary energy consumption. The study identifies three transition models—renewable-dominated, hybrid, and nuclear-oriented—and concludes that effective transition strategies in Central and Eastern Europe require differentiated policy approaches that account for infrastructure constraints, energy security, and regional heterogeneity.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/en19143225first seen 2026-07-09 06:07:03
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