History versus aspirations: carbon neutrality postponed by several decades
歴史と野心の乖離：数十年先送りされるカーボンニュートラル (AI 翻訳)
V. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin, O. V. Mikushina
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国、インドなど9大新興国のカーボンニュートラル達成可能性をモデリングと文献レビューで評価。現在の脱炭素速度とCCS展開では2050-2070年の目標達成は今世紀末まで不可能と結論。CO2貯留能力は中国とブラジルのみが1世紀超。気候目標の達成には世界経済のマイナス排出が必要。
English
This study models the carbon neutrality prospects of nine major developing economies, finding that current decarbonization rates and CCS deployment are insufficient to meet 2050-2070 targets until after 2100. Only China and Brazil have century-scale CO2 storage capacity. The global economy must achieve net-negative emissions to limit temperature overshoot above 1.5°C.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本にも示唆：新興国の排出経路が世界の炭素予算を左右するため、日本のGX戦略も国際的な排出削減ペースとCCS普及見通しを考慮する必要がある。ただし日本は分析対象外。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a reality check for global climate pledges, reinforcing that current NDCs and CCS scaling are insufficient. For ISSB/TCFD reporting, it highlights transition risk disclosure gaps in emerging markets and the need to align corporate scenario analysis with plausible decarbonization trajectories.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Empirical evidence that CCS scale-up is a bottleneck for developing-country net-zero targets; useful for integrated assessment modeling validation.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the need for companies to stress-test business models against slower-than-expected decarbonization in emerging markets.
🏛政策担当者:Underscores the urgency of accelerating CCS investment and technology transfer to developing economies; suggests current pledges are unrealistic.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Here, we use modeling and literature assessments to quantify the prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by nine major developing economies (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Mexico, and South Africa). We examine the structure of energy consumption, electricity generation, and land use in these countries. Scenario estimates of the dynamics of carbon indicators of the world’s leading economies at global and subglobal scales based on a historical approach have been developed. It is shown that the current rate of decarbonization and the development of the carbon capture and storage industry in the studied countries is not sufficient for these countries to fulfill their obligations to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050-2070 – this goal cannot be attained before the end of the century. The key challenge in achieving the carbon neutrality is the rapid, large-scale deployment of the carbon capture and storage technologies in all possible forms. Of the countries studied, however, only China and Brazil have their capabilities to store carbon for more than a century. Although climate change occupies practically a leading place in the global agenda, the actual results of efforts in this area are far from the declared ones, and the climate warming can no longer be kept within 1.5°C. The core problem is to minimize the residence time for the global climate system in the dangerous zone (with a temperature overshoot above 1.5°C), which will require the emergence of the world economy with negative greenhouse gas emissions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4059first seen 2026-07-15 06:04:45
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