Assessing the Financial Impact of Carbon Pricing on the Brazilian Steel Industry: A Scenario-Based Analysis
ブラジル鉄鋼業における炭素価格の財務影響評価：シナリオベース分析 (AI 翻訳)
Antonio Savi, Luan Santos, Sofia Helena Zanella Carra, Giovanna Tosto Franco, Marcelo Savi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、ブラジル鉄鋼業に対する炭素価格の財務影響を3つのシナリオ（国内排出権取引、CBAM、Scope3）で評価。結果、国内炭素価格により生産コストが7～21%増加、年間16～49億ドルの追加コストが発生。国際CBAMにより輸出収入が5.7～17億ドル減少する可能性を示した。スコープ3排出が総炭素価格エクスポージャーの68%を占める。
English
This study evaluates the financial impact of carbon pricing on the Brazilian steel industry under three scenarios: domestic cap-and-trade, CBAM, and Scope 3. Results show domestic pricing could increase production costs by 7–21%, generating USD 1.6–4.9 billion in annual costs. CBAM could reduce export revenues by USD 0.57–1.7 billion. Scope 3 emissions account for 68% of total carbon pricing exposure.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ブラジル鉄鋼業の炭素価格影響を分析した本論文は、日本の鉄鋼業界がEU-CBAMや国内カーボンプライシングに直面する中で、定量的な財務影響の理解に役立つ。特に、スコープ3排出の重要性とサプライチェーン全体での対応の必要性を示している。
In the global GX context
This paper provides critical empirical evidence on carbon pricing impacts in an emerging market, highly relevant for global steel industry and policymakers evaluating CBAM and domestic carbon pricing. The Scope 3 analysis underscores the need for supply-chain-wide disclosure and mitigation strategies in line with ISSB/TCFD frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous scenario-based methodology for assessing carbon pricing financial exposure, applicable to other industries and regions.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the magnitude of carbon cost risks, especially Scope 3, guiding corporate strategy for emissions reduction and supply chain engagement.
🏛政策担当者:Quantifies trade-offs between domestic carbon pricing and CBAM, informing policy design for industrial competitiveness and decarbonization.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Steel production accounts for approximately 7% of global GHG emissions. Brazil is the largest steel producer in Latin America, and carbon pricing is rapidly moving from a policy debate to an operational reality, making the financial exposure of Brazilian steelmakers to carbon regulation one of the most pressing industrial sustainability questions in an emerging market context. This study evaluates the financial exposure of the Brazilian steel industry to three carbon pricing scenarios: (i) a domestic cap-and-trade mechanism under Brazil’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE); (ii) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) applied by key trading partners (EU, a hypothetical USA scenario, and a global scenario); and (iii) supply chain (Scope 3) exposure, relevant under net-zero corporate commitments and the expected expansion of EU-CBAM coverage. Using a scenario-based financial impact approach, with both macro-level (industry) and micro-level (company) analyses, results show that domestic carbon pricing could increase production costs by 7–21%, generating USD 1.6–4.9 billion in additional annual costs (equivalent to 4.3–13.3% of annual industry revenue). International CBAM exposure could reduce Brazilian steel export revenues by USD 570 million to USD 1.7 billion in a global scenario (1.5–4.6% of annual industry revenue). Supply chain emissions represent 68% of the industry’s total carbon pricing exposure, equivalent to USD 1.1–3.3 billion in domestic pricing costs and USD 388 million–1.16 billion in CBAM export revenue reduction. A company-level case study confirms the pattern, with lower Scope 3 intensity yielding a comparatively smaller but still material exposure. These findings offer practical decision support for steel companies and policymakers navigating the transition to a low-carbon economy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136525first seen 2026-06-29 06:04:33
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