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Natural disasters and clean energy transition: Rising from the ashes of destruction?

自然災害とクリーンエネルギー転換:破壊の灰から立ち上がる? (AI 翻訳)

Ajayi I

Research Squareプレプリント2026-06-18#再生可能エネルギーOrigin: Global
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9783577/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9783577/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、自然災害が再生可能エネルギーの普及を促進するかを、84カ国の665の準国家地域における2700件の再生可能エネルギープロジェクトと6000件の自然災害のパネルデータを用いて初めて検証。自然災害後の再生可能エネルギープロジェクト数が16.2%、投資額が18.5%増加することを発見。この効果はエネルギー価格上昇と金融システムの発展に起因する。

English

This paper provides the first subnational-level causal evidence that natural disasters increase renewable energy diffusion. Using panel data on 2,700 renewable projects and 6,000 disasters across 84 developing countries (1990-2021), it finds a 16.2% increase in project numbers and 18.5% increase in investments after disasters. The effect is partly driven by higher energy prices and stronger in countries with developed financial systems.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本研究成果は、日本が直面する自然災害(地震・台風)後の復興過程で再生可能エネルギー導入を促進する政策立案に示唆を与える。ただし対象は途上国であり、日本の成熟したエネルギー市場への直接適用には留意が必要。

In the global GX context

This paper adds to global GX scholarship by empirically linking physical climate risks (natural disasters) to clean energy investment, relevant for TCFD/ISSB risk assessments and transition finance. It suggests disaster recovery periods can be leveraged for renewable energy deployment, informing post-disaster reconstruction policies worldwide.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides novel causal identification of natural disasters as drivers of renewable energy diffusion at subnational level in developing countries.

🏢実務担当者:Companies in disaster-prone regions can anticipate post-disaster renewable energy booms, informing energy procurement and site selection.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should integrate renewable energy incentives into disaster recovery plans, especially in countries with developed financial systems.

📄 Abstract(原文)

<title>Abstract</title> <p> The frequency and severity of natural disasters make climate change risks more tangible and may translate into pro-environmental outcomes. This article investigates—for the first time—whether natural disasters can stimulate renewable energy diffusion at a geographically disaggregated level. We construct a unique panel data set using the information on 2700 renewable energy projects and 6000 natural disasters across 665 subnational (SN2) regions in 84 developing countries, covering 1990 to 2021. We find robust evidence that encountering a natural disaster increases the number of renewable energy projects (extensive margin) within a district by 16.2%, raising monetary investments (intensive margin) by 18.5%. We also document that the post-disaster diffusion in renewable energy is partly motivated by higher energy prices and is more prevalent in countries with more developed financial systems. Our findings suggest that natural disasters can act as a positive exogenous shock to clean energy transition. <italic>JEL Classification</italic> : O3; Q2, Q54. </p>

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