Navigating India's low-carbon development futures: An interpretive assessment of model scenarios
インドの低炭素発展の将来を探る：モデルシナリオの解釈的評価 (AI 翻訳)
A A K Srivastava, Easwaran Narassimhan, Navroz K. Dubash
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、インドの低炭素発展政策を支える排出・経済モデリング研究8件を評価。成長・都市化の範囲不足、需要側対策の欠如、排出経路と累積排出量の重要性、投資と排出の逆相関、エネルギー安全保障の限定的議論、雇用への影響の不確実性を指摘。より包括的なモデリングと定性的分析の必要性を提言。
English
This paper assesses eight emissions-economy modeling studies informing India's low-carbon development policy. It finds insufficient exploration of growth and urbanization possibilities, inadequate demand-side approaches, importance of emissions trajectories over peaking year, inverse relationship between investments and cumulative emissions, limited energy security discussions, and uncertain employment impacts. Calls for broader modeling and qualitative analysis.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
インドの低炭素政策モデリングの課題を分析。日本の脱炭素政策（GX推進法、成長志向型カーボンプライシング）との共通点は少ないが、新興国モデリングの手法面で示唆を得られる。
In the global GX context
Provides critical insights for global climate policy modeling, especially for rapidly growing economies. Relevant for ISSB and transition finance discussions by highlighting the gap between model assumptions and real-world development pathways.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Highlights limitations in existing energy-economy models for developing countries, urging more comprehensive and qualitative approaches.
🏛政策担当者:Offers caution against over-relying on model projections; emphasizes need to explore diverse growth pathways and demand-side policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract As India pursues economic opportunities alongside undertaking climate actions, its low-carbon development policymaking is informed by an expanding ecosystem of emissions-economy modelling studies. In India’s rapidly changing economic context, it is important to assess whether and how such studies represent real development contexts facing policymakers. To explore this question, this paper examines the results and implications of eight emissions-economy modelling studies that offer policy guidance for India. By highlighting areas where findings converge and diverge, it draws out aggregated insights relevant to six of India’s policy priorities. 

It finds that [1] Studies do not explore the full range of India’s future growth and urbanisation possibilities. [2] The discourse on the energy transition inadequately addresses demand-side approaches and alternative patterns of energy demand. [3] The projected emissions trajectories can impact the carbon budget as much as the peaking year can, and can have a bigger impact on cumulative emissions than even the choice of net-zero year. [4] Required investments are inversely related with cumulative emissions, though investment patterns can look different for similar emissions trajectories. [5] Discussions on energy security are limited, and require greater consideration of patterns of growth that emphasise domestic manufacturing. [6] While decarbonisation can have positive employment impacts, there is no consensus about their scale. 

Contextualising these findings, the paper concludes that while modelling studies usefully explore emissions trends and the supply side of the energy transition, there is a parallel need for better exploration of India’s possible economic growth pathways, energy demand trends, investments, and employment and energy security impacts. Given that India is growing rapidly and has not yet locked into a specific development pathway, greater attention to future possible growth pathways will yield enhanced insights. This will hinge upon deeper analysis across more comprehensive modelling efforts, in combination with qualitative explorations of their implications.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8318first seen 2026-06-29 05:16:58 · last seen 2026-06-29 05:17:05
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