Estimating carbon prices for revenue parity between timber and carbon in forest plantations
森林プランテーションにおける木材と炭素の収入均衡のための炭素価格の推定 (AI 翻訳)
Wan‐Yu Liu, Yi-Hsin Lu, Rachel Sui Kei Lee
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
台湾のスギ植林を対象に、炭素価格がどのレベルで木材生産と競合するかを分析。林地表では958NT$/tCO2e、新規植林では3,704-8,056NT$/tCO2eの閾値を示した。政策含意として、炭素価格が十分高ければ保全が経済的に成立することを実証。
English
This study estimates carbon price thresholds for making forest conservation economically competitive with timber production in Taiwan's Cunninghamia lanceolata plantations. Estate-level analysis yields NT$958/tCO2e; stand-level break-even range is NT$3,704-8,056/tCO2e. Findings inform carbon pricing policy for forest sector climate strategy.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
台湾の事例ではあるが、日本の森林由来クレジット（J-クレジット）や炭素価格政策にも示唆を与える。特に、林業と炭素収入のバランス点を定量化した点は、日本の森林経営や再造林・間伐の促進に応用可能。
In the global GX context
While focused on Taiwan, the analytical framework for estimating carbon prices at which conservation becomes competitive is globally relevant, especially for countries with forest carbon offset programs and timber industries. It contributes to the growing literature on carbon pricing in land-use sectors.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous net present value framework for comparing timber and carbon revenues in plantation forests.
🏢実務担当者:Energy and forest companies can use the break-even carbon price estimates to evaluate forest carbon projects.
🏛政策担当者:Offers concrete carbon price targets for designing forest conservation incentives and carbon credit programs.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon pricing policies are increasingly central to forest sector climate strategy, yet the carbon price levels at which conservation becomes economically competitive with timber production vary depending on the framing. We examine Taiwan’s Cunninghamia lanceolata (fir) plantations through two complementary net present value analyses. The estate-level revenue equivalence analysis compares aggregate carbon and timber revenues across the plantation estate over 2005–2024, while the stand-level break-even analysis identifies the carbon price at which a newly established plantation would be financially competitive with full timber harvest at age 37 using a levelized-cost framework. The estate-level analysis yields a threshold of NT$958/tCO 2 e (USD $32). The stand-level analysis yields a range of NT$3,704–8,056/tCO 2 e (USD $123–269) depending on timber price and subsidy assumptions, with foregone timber revenue accounting for 39–48% of total costs across scenarios. The higher stand-level threshold assumes that the entire stand would be harvested at rotation age. In practice, harvest volumes across Taiwan’s fir estate have declined substantially, meaning the real opportunity cost facing many landowners is lower than our analysis assumes. Our analysis provides policy-relevant insights into the carbon pricing levels needed to make conservation economically competitive with timber harvesting in Taiwan’s plantation forest context.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-61242-xfirst seen 2026-07-15 05:07:36
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