Historical reconstruction and future projections 1950-2050
ベルギーにおける配電電力の温室効果ガス排出原単位の歴史的再構築と将来予測（1950-2050年） (AI 翻訳)
Shady Attia
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本報告は、ベルギーの配電電力のGHG排出原単位を1950年から2050年まで再構築・予測する。EN 15978やISO 14040等に準拠し、建物のライフサイクル炭素評価のためのModule B6運転排出計算に使用可能。2025年の原単位は145 gCO2e/kWh（1975-85年の原子力導入により1950年比81%減）、2050年には約34 gCO2e/kWhと予測。
English
This report reconstructs and projects the GHG emission intensity of delivered electricity in Belgium from 1950 to 2050, compliant with EN 15978 and ISO 14040 for whole-life carbon assessments. The intensity fell from ~760 gCO2e/kWh in 1950 to 145 gCO2e/kWh in 2025 (81% reduction driven by nuclear commissioning), and is projected to reach ~34 gCO2e/kWh by 2050. Uncertainty ranges (P5-P95) are provided for each reference year.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ベルギーは原子力と再エネへの移行が進み、日本の電源構成とは異なるが、ライフサイクル評価手法やプロジェクションの枠組みは参考になる。日本でもSSBJやグリーンウォッシュ防止の観点から電力排出原単位の精度向上が求められており、本手法が示唆する透明性の高い不確実性評価は重要。
In the global GX context
Belgium's grid decarbonization path—driven by nuclear and renewables—contrasts with many countries, but the rigorous lifecycle methodology and transparent uncertainty quantification are globally relevant. The alignment with EN 15978 and ISO standards makes this directly applicable to whole-life carbon assessments in building regulations worldwide, including evolving frameworks like the EU's Energy Performance of Buildings Directive.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a transparent methodology for reconstructing historical grid intensity with uncertainty bounds, useful for lifecycle assessment studies.
🏢実務担当者:Building sustainability professionals can use these emission factors for Module B6 calculations in whole-life carbon assessments.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates how multi-decadal grid intensity trends can be robustly estimated, supporting national carbon footprinting and NECP evaluations.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This report presents a rigorous historical reconstruction and forward projection of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of delivered electricity inwh Belgium, covering the period 1950 to 2050. The reconstruction is designed for use in Module B6 operational emissions calculations within whole-life carbon (WLC) assessments of residential buildings, in compliance with EN 15978, ISO 14040, and ISO 14044 Whole Life Carton methodology. Lifecycle emission factors are derived for twenty-two reference years using a weighted average of technology-specific lifecycle GHG intensities (IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III) applied to reconstructed Belgian generation mixes. Sources follow a strict evidence hierarchy: Belgian Nuclear Forum direct statistical statements, IEA country energy policy reviews, Elia transmission system operator annual statistics, Eurostat energy balances, European Environment Agency GHG intensity indicators, and Ember global electricity data. The central results show that Belgian grid carbon intensity fell from approximately 760 gCO2e/kWh in 1950 (coal and oil dominant) to 145 gCO2e/kWh in 2025 (nuclear and renewables dominant), an 81% reduction driven overwhelmingly by the nuclear commissioning programme of 1975 to 1985. Forward projections to 2050 are aligned with the Elia Blueprint 2035 to 2050, the PATHS2050 EnergyVille Central Scenario, and the Belgian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021 to 2030, yielding a projected intensity of approximately 34 gCO2e/kWh by 2050. Parametric uncertainty ranges are provided for each reference year (P5 to P95). Confidence classes range from A for 2020 to 2025 (multiple corroborating real-time datasets) to C for the 1950 to 1960 period and the 2045 to 2050 projections (high scenario uncertainty). The dataset is fully traceable and calculation-ready.
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- openalex https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/345758first seen 2026-06-29 04:43:31 · last seen 2026-06-29 04:51:06
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