Make or Brake on the Paris Agreement? Accelerating Climate Ambition Trajectories
パリ協定の成否を決める？気候野心軌道の加速化 (AI 翻訳)
William Hopkinson
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、OECD諸国におけるNDC野心の変動を質的比較分析（QCA）を用いて初めて検討した。低い化石燃料利害と非左派政党政治が制度的障壁を克服し、高い野心を持つNDCを提出する軌道を形成する一方、高い化石燃料利害と非左派政党政治は野心の変化を制約する。日本の事例研究は、気候後進国が時間とともに改善する可能性を示し、野心軌道を促進する国内変化の理解を深める。
English
This article is the first to use qualitative comparative analysis to examine variation in NDC ambition among OECD states. It finds that low fossil fuel interests and non-left partisanship can overcome institutional barriers for ambitious NDCs, while high fossil fuel interests and non-left partisanship constrain ambition shifts. The Japan case study demonstrates how climate laggards can improve over time, deepening understanding of domestic changes driving positive ambition trajectories.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本を事例として取り上げ、気候野心の軌道における国内要因（化石燃料利害、政党政治）の役割を分析している点が重要。日本のNDC策定プロセスやSSBJ対応への示唆に富み、日本が気候後進国から脱却するための政治的条件を考察する材料を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global climate policy scholarship by explaining why some OECD states increase ambition in successive NDC submissions while others do not. The QCA method identifies institutional and political pathways, offering actionable insights for the Paris Agreement's ratchet mechanism and for countries like Japan seeking to accelerate their transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel QCA approach to studying climate ambition and identifies key political-institutional determinants of NDC ambition trajectories.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights that reducing fossil fuel interests and fostering non-left partisanship can help overcome institutional barriers to raising NDC ambition.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Among OECD states with an outsize responsibility for mitigation efforts, there has been substantial variation in climate ambition in their respective Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This variation in climate ambition occurs across states and also over time in subsequent NDC submission cycles. This article is the first to use qualitative comparative analysis to examine the role of ideas, interests, and institutions in shaping climate ambition trajectories across two rounds of NDC submissions. I find that states with low fossil fuel interests and nonleft partisanship can overcome institutional barriers to submit ambitious NDCs and form positive ambition trajectories. Conversely, high fossil fuel interests and nonleft partisanship form the dominant pathway that constrains climate ambition shifts across conferences of the parties. I focus on Japan as an illustrative case study that demonstrates how climate laggards can improve over time and in turn deepen understandings of the domestic changes that drive positive ambition trajectories.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1162/glep.a.738first seen 2026-06-29 04:49:49 · last seen 2026-06-29 04:51:15
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