Transition Scenarios for the Steel Industry toward Net Zero Emissions: A Multi-Method Foresight Study Using Delphi, MICMAC, and Narrative Scenario Planning
鉄鋼業のネットゼロ排出移行シナリオ：デルファイ法、MICMAC、ナラティブシナリオ計画を用いた多手法フォーサイト研究 (AI 翻訳)
Khalili Zonouz, Mozhgan, Khalili Zonouz, Homa
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、2050年までの鉄鋼業の脱炭素化を探る多手法フォーサイト研究である。国際的なデルファイパネルとMICMAC分析により、グリーン水素の利用可能性と気候政策の厳格さが主要な推進要因であることを特定。4つのシナリオ（グリーンリープ、段階的移行、炭素ロックイン、破壊的イノベーション）を提示し、現在の政策ではパリ協定目標達成が困難であることを示唆する。
English
This multi-method foresight study explores decarbonization pathways for the global steel industry by 2050. Using an international Delphi panel and MICMAC analysis, it identifies green hydrogen availability and climate policy stringency as key drivers. Four scenarios are developed, showing that current policies are insufficient for Paris-aligned targets, and a policy roadmap with ten recommendations is provided.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は鉄鋼業がCO2排出の約15%を占め、水素還元技術の実証に積極的。本シナリオは日本の政策立案者や鉄鋼企業が長期的な投資判断や国際競争力を考える上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
The steel sector is a hard-to-abate industry critical for global decarbonization. This study's scenario framework and policy roadmap are directly relevant for international climate policy discussions, particularly for hydrogen deployment and carbon pricing mechanisms.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The Delphi+MICMAC scenario methodology is transferable to other hard-to-abate sectors and enriches strategic foresight literature.
🏢実務担当者:Steel companies can use the four scenarios to stress-test their transition strategies and align investment with likely policy and technology trajectories.
🏛政策担当者:The cross-scenario policy roadmap offers concrete recommendations for designing effective industrial decarbonization policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Transition Scenarios for the Steel Industry toward Net Zero Emissions presents a comprehensive multi‑method foresight study exploring how the global steel sector may decarbonize by 2050. Using an international two‑round Delphi panel (15 experts), MICMAC structural analysis, and narrative scenario planning, the study identifies green hydrogen availability and binding climate policy stringency as the two critical drivers shaping future transition pathways. The research develops four fully parameterized scenarios —Green Leap, Gradual Transition, Carbon Lock‑In, and Disruptive Innovation—each including quantified CO₂ reduction trajectories, hydrogen cost ranges, carbon pricing levels, technology maturity, and expert‑elicited probabilities. Results show that the most probable scenario (Gradual Transition, 35%) does not achieve Paris‑aligned net‑zero timelines, highlighting the insufficiency of current global policy trajectories. The study provides a cross‑scenario policy roadmap with ten targeted recommendations for governments, industry, and multilateral institutions. The methodological framework (Delphi + MICMAC + scenario planning) is transferable to other hard‑to‑abate sectors and contributes to strategic foresight literature by integrating qualitative and quantitative transition analysis.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/21010995first seen 2026-06-29 04:27:00
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