Green Bond Market Development and Fiscal Sustainability in the EU: Drivers of Market Entry and Depth
EUにおけるグリーンボンド市場の発展と財政の持続可能性：市場参入と深度の決定要因 (AI 翻訳)
Krasteva-Hristova R, Georgieva V
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本稿はEU加盟国のグリーンボンド市場の不均一な発展を、主権グリーンボンド市場への参入と市場全体の深度という二つの側面に分けて分析。2021-2025年のパネルデータを用いたプロビット・トビット推計の結果、市場参入は経済規模に関連する一方、市場深度は財政の信認と関連していることが示された。環境税との代替関係は確認されず、政策 implicationとして小国への参入コスト削減と制度構築の重要性が示唆される。
English
This paper investigates the uneven development of green bond markets across EU Member States by distinguishing between sovereign market entry and overall market depth. Using panel data from 2021-2025, Probit and Tobit models reveal that entry is driven by economic scale, while depth is associated with fiscal credibility. No substitution effect with environmental taxation is found, implying that green debt markets complement rather than replace fiscal instruments. Policy implications emphasize reducing entry costs and building institutional capacity in smaller states.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもグリーンボンド市場は拡大しているが、発行体の財政状況や市場の深度に関する知見は、日本のグリーンボンドガイドラインやSSBJの枠組みにおいても示唆に富む。特に、財政規律とグリーン債市場の関係は、日本国債のグリーン化を検討する際の参考となる。
In the global GX context
This EU-focused study contributes to the global transition finance literature by showing that green bond market depth depends on fiscal credibility. For jurisdictions like Japan and the US, where green bond markets are growing, the results highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability as a precondition for market deepening—a nuance often overlooked in disclosure-centric frameworks like TCFD or ISSB.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides econometric evidence on the determinants of green bond market development, distinguishing entry from depth.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for finance teams considering green bond issuance, especially regarding the role of fiscal credibility.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that reducing market-entry costs and building institutional capacity in smaller economies can foster green bond market growth.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The European Union has emerged as the world’s leading region in green bond issuance, yet market development across Member States remains markedly uneven. This article investigates the factors underlying these differences by distinguishing between two dimensions: entry into the sovereign green bond market and the depth of the green debt market as a whole. Using a balanced panel of the EU-27 for 2021–2025, constructed from ECB Securities Issues Statistics (CSEC) and Eurostat data, market entry is modelled using a Probit specification, while market depth is examined using a Tobit specification that accounts for countries remaining outside the market. The results show that the two dimensions are driven by different factors. Sovereign market entry is associated primarily with economic scale, whereas the fiscal position has no detectable effect on participation. Market depth, by contrast, is associated not only with economic scale but also with a stronger budget balance, suggesting that green debt markets deepen where fiscal credibility already exists rather than serving as a substitute for it. No statistically significant negative relationship is identified between environmental taxation and green debt market depth, providing no evidence of substitution and remaining consistent with the use of the two instruments as distinct and potentially parallel policy tools. The principal policy implication is that efforts should focus on reducing market-entry costs and strengthening institutional capacity in smaller Member States.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202606.1961.v1first seen 2026-07-03 04:27:37 · last seen 2026-07-05 04:33:50
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