The positive economic impacts of technical progress induced by major natural disasters: empirical evidence from China
大規模自然災害が引き起こす技術進歩のプラスの経済効果：中国からの実証的証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Wei Ding, Jidong Wu, Rumei Tang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、2008年四川大地震の事例を用いて、大規模自然災害後の技術進歩が経済に与える正の影響を分析。シュンペーターの「創造的破壊」に基づき、災害後の復興が技術革新と産業構造の最適化を促進することを示す。IO表とマトリックス変換を組み合わせた新たな手法で、技術進歩の経済効果を定量化し、間接損失を過小評価するリスクを指摘。
English
This paper analyzes the positive economic impacts of technical progress after major natural disasters using the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake as a case. Based on Schumpeter's 'creative destruction,' it shows that post-disaster reconstruction drives technological renewal and industrial optimization. By integrating matrix transformation with IO table forecasting, it quantifies technical progress dividends and warns against underestimating indirect economic losses.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の災害復興（東日本大震災など）においても、技術進歩と経済回復の関係は重要。ただし、本論文は中国の国家システムに依存した分析であり、日本への直接適用には注意が必要。復興政策への示唆として参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how post-disaster technical progress can boost economic recovery, relevant to global disaster resilience frameworks. However, its findings are heavily tied to China's centralized system, limiting direct transferability to market-driven economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Offers a novel methodology (dynamic technical coefficient matrices) for disaster economics and input-output analysis.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to consider technical progress in post-disaster economic loss assessments and reconstruction planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Major natural disasters inflict huge direct damage and far-reaching indirect economic impacts. To drive faster and better recovery, global efforts prioritize postdisaster restoration and reconstruction. While some studies note the positive effects of postdisaster technical progress, its nature remains unclear. Building on Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction,’ large-scale reconstruction—though a byproduct of disasters—may drive technological renewal, optimize industrial structure, and generate potential positive economic impacts. This study pioneers the integration of matrix transformation and IO table forecasting to simulate dynamic technical coefficient matrices, offering unprecedented insights into technological evolution following the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. By innovatively embedding technical progress effects into the adaptive regional input–output model, we quantified their economic dividends—revealing striking technological leaps in resource- and technology-intensive sectors, largely driven by large-scale external assistance under China’s national system. Counterfactual analyses show Sichuan’s indirect economic losses (IELs) would be underestimated by 98.3% if the nondisaster economic development trends were ignored; conversely, neglecting technical progress could lead to a 6.4-fold overestimation of IELs. These findings position postdisaster technological renewal and industrial upgrades as pivotal drivers of economic recovery and resilience—offering transformative guidance for global reconstruction strategies while validating the ‘double negative yields positive’ disaster theory in economics.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae4818first seen 2026-06-29 07:54:54
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