SCENARIO FORECASTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN METALLURGICAL PRODUCTION DURING THE POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE
K. Taranets, Olena Maliarenko, O. Teslenko
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ウクライナ鉄鋼業の戦後復興における脱炭素化シナリオを分析。高炉→電気炉、DRI+水素など技術経路と生産量（1000万t/2000万t）を想定し、2030年のNDC達成可能性を示す。2050年カーボンニュートラルにはCCSが必要と結論。
English
This study models decarbonization scenarios for Ukraine's steel industry under post-war reconstruction, comparing BF-BOF, EAF, and DRI (with natural gas or hydrogen). Two production levels (10 and 20 Mt/year) can meet 2030 NDC targets, but 2050 carbon neutrality requires CCS or offsets. A shift from coal to electricity, gas, biomass, and hydrogen is identified.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ウクライナの事例は日本にとって直接の参考にはならないが、戦後復興を契機とした鉄鋼業の大規模な低炭素転換計画は、日本のCCS・水素戦略や国際的なトランジション・ファイナンスの議論に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a rare case study of post-war steel industry decarbonization, linking energy transition, NDC targets, and CCS/hydrogen pathways. It highlights the need for cross-sector coordination and can inform global debates on transition finance and green steel standards.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A quantitative scenario model for steel decarbonization, integrating technology pathways and energy demands, useful for cross-sector energy planning studies.
🏢実務担当者:Steel companies planning long-term energy procurement and technology roadmaps can learn from the scenario methodology.
🏛政策担当者:Provides a model for aligning industrial policy with NDCs and net-zero targets, especially for countries undergoing reconstruction.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The steel industry of Ukraine has been facing a number of significant challenges over the last couple of years. The needs of the steel industry include post-war capacity retrofits using the “build back better” principle, opening free trade with the European Union (EU) market, and the prospects for further integration into the EU. This integration enables dialogue regarding sector development, the identification of relevant technology pathways, energy needs, and total greenhouse gases emissions changes. The following pathways to produce steel are analysed in the present paper: blast furnace with basic oxygen furnace or open-hearth furnace, electric arc furnace using mainly scrap as a raw material, and direct iron reduction with subsequent steel smelting in an electric arc furnace using both natural gas and hydrogen as reducing agents. The analysis covers two production scenarios: 10 mln t and 20 mln t of steel per year. Both scenarios, under the defined technological transformation pathways, allow for the achievement of Ukraine’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution targets for 2030. However, reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 will require the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or offsetting mechanisms. The study emphasizes a significant transformation in the structure of energy consumption – from coal and coke to electricity, natural gas, biomass, and eventually hydrogen – which necessitates cross-sectoral coordination and strategic planning for the development of clean energy. Among the changes in energy needs, the key long-term challenge is ensuring additional volumes of fossil-free electricity. To identify the appropriate pathway for electricity sector development, the complex issue of cross-sectoral coordination between the metallurgical and energy industries must be addressed, along with the alignment of relevant policies and economic forecasts. The results obtained contribute to the development of decarbonization policies for Ukraine’s metallurgical sector, taking into account energy security and economic feasibility. Bibl. 29, Tab. 1, Fig. 7.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.33070/etars.1.2026.03first seen 2026-06-29 07:42:48
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