The Role of Forward Trading in Short-term Electricity Markets with Zero-carbon Energy Resources
ゼロカーボンエネルギー資源を含む短期電力市場における先渡取引の役割 (AI 翻訳)
Dongwei Zhao, Jonghwan Kwon, Audun Botterud
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、太陽光・風力・水力・蓄電などのゼロカーボン資源を考慮した電力市場において、先渡市場がスポット市場価格や事業者の戦略行動に与える影響を分析。2段階ゲームモデルを用い、先渡市場が価格低下をもたらす条件を理論的に示す一方、貯蔵や水力のような時間的制約がある資源では価格が上昇する場合があることを数値実験で明らかにした。再生可能エネルギーの不確実性が高いほど先渡市場での契約量が増加し収益向上につながる可能性も示唆。
English
This paper examines the impact of forward trading on spot market prices and strategic behavior of suppliers with zero-carbon resources (solar, wind, hydro, storage). Using a two-stage game-theoretic model, it proves that forward markets can lower prices if pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists and resources lack inter-temporal constraints. However, numerical results show that for resources with inter-temporal constraints (storage, reservoir hydro), forward markets may increase prices in some periods while reducing temporal price spreads. Sensitivity analysis reveals that higher renewable uncertainty encourages contracting and can increase revenues.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では2024年度から電力先渡市場の活性化が進められており、再エネ大量導入時の市場設計に示唆を与える。特に、貯水池式水力や蓄電池が増加する中で、先渡取引が価格形成に与える影響を定量的に示した点は、国内の電力システム改革関係者にとって関心が高い。
In the global GX context
Globally, this paper contributes to the debate on market design for high-renewable power systems, where forward markets are increasingly seen as a tool to manage price risk and support investment. The findings highlight trade-offs: while forward trading can lower average prices, it may increase price volatility for resources with inter-temporal constraints, which has implications for storage and hydropower operators.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous game-theoretic framework to analyze strategic behavior in forward markets with renewable and storage resources.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for utilities and power traders on how forward contracting affects spot prices and revenue streams, especially for storage and hydropower.
🏛政策担当者:Informs the design of forward market mechanisms to balance price reduction benefits and potential adverse effects on flexible resources.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Forward markets are gaining increasing interest in the transition towards low-carbon electricity markets. This paper examines the role of forward markets with zero-carbon energy resources, such as solar and wind energy, hydropower, and energy storage, by studying the strategic behaviors of suppliers in both forward and spot markets. We formulate a two-stage game-theoretic model with forward and spot markets and analyze the Nash equilibrium in such systems. We prove that, in a market comprising of energy resources without inter-temporal constraints (such as only solar and wind), the presence of forward markets can lower the market price provided that a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists. However, numerical results show that when resources are subject to inter-temporal constraints, e.g., energy storage and reservoir hydropower, the market price can increase for some time slots while the temporal price spread decreases if the forward market is introduced. In sensitivity analysis, we find that an increased renewable energy uncertainty can encourage renewable energy suppliers to contract more in the forward market and even increase its revenue with the presence of the forward market. Moreover, an increased water budget can decrease reservoir hydropower's revenue as the forward market intensifies market competition and significantly reduces the market price.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5093873first seen 2026-07-13 04:48:56
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