Firm characteristics, climate policy shocks, and climate risk exposures: Evidence of feedback loops from a quasi-experiment in GCC countries
企業特性、気候政策ショック、気候リスク曝露：GCC諸国における準自然実験によるフィードバックループの証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Quyen Pham, Huy Pham, Hanh Le, Chune Young Chung, Hau Truong
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、GCC諸国の775社を対象に、気候政策ショックと企業特性が移行リスク曝露（TRE）と物理的リスク曝露（PRE）に与える影響を分析。Fama-French5因子モデルに気候リスク指標を組み込み、SURとシステムGMMを用いてフィードバックループを実証。2021年の気候政策導入後、GCC企業の移行リスクは増加し物理的リスクは減少。投資家選好と規制圧力が主要な伝達経路であることを示す。
English
This paper examines how external policy shocks and firm characteristics affect transition risk exposure (TRE) and physical risk exposure (PRE) in GCC countries using 775 firms from 2005 to 2024. It employs Fama-French five-factor models with climate risk indices, SUR, and system GMM to document feedback loops. A quasi-natural experiment using Chinese firms as control shows that GCC firms face higher transition risk but lower physical risk after 2021 climate policies, with investor preference and regulatory pressure as dominant channels.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
GCC諸国という石油依存経済を対象としながらも、政策ショックと企業の気候リスク応答のフィードバック効果を実証した点は、日本の炭素集約産業（鉄鋼・化学等）の移行リスク管理にも示唆を与える。特に、投資とイノベーションのチャネルがリスクタイプで異なる反応を示すことは、日本の企業経営者や投資家が気候変動対応を検討する上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper adds to global climate disclosure scholarship by demonstrating feedback loops between climate risk exposures and firm responses (investment, innovation, sustainability) in a carbon-intensive region. The quasi-experimental evidence of how policy shocks shift transition vs. physical risk exposures is relevant for jurisdictions like the EU (CSRD) and the US (SEC climate rules) whose disclosure mandates may similarly alter risk profiles. The methodological approach combining asset pricing models with causal inference is a strong example for empiricists.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodologically, the combination of Fama-French augmented models with SUR and system GMM for feedback loops offers a replicable framework for studying climate risk dynamics. The quasi-experimental design using Chinese firms as a control group is innovative.
🏢実務担当者:For corporate sustainability teams in energy-intensive sectors, the finding that transition risk dominates investment and innovation responses when both risks are present suggests prioritizing transition risk management in strategic planning.
🏛政策担当者:The evidence that investor preference and regulatory pressure are dominant transmission channels underlines the importance of credible policy signals and disclosures to steer firm behavior.
📄 Abstract（原文）
We examine how external policy shocks and firm characteristics affect firms' environment-related transition risk exposure (TRE) and physical risk exposure (PRE) in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, emphasizing feedback effects among these variables using a dataset of 775 firms from 2005 to 2024. First, we estimate transition and physical risk exposure using the Fama-French five-factor model augmented with global transition and physical risk indices. To disentangle climate-specific exposures from energy-price dynamics, we construct both standard (FF5) and oil-controlled measures, capturing two distinct sources of climate risk in GCC countries. Using seemingly unrelated regressions and system GMM, we document feedback loops between climate risk exposures and firm responses across investment, innovation, and sustainability channels. Firms expand investment under rising transition risk but contract it under physical risk, revealing distinct behavioral mechanisms. When both risks are present jointly, transition risk dominates investment and innovation responses. We also apply a quasi-natural experiment framework to assess the impact of the 2021 introduction of climate policies in the GCC on firms' climate-related risk exposure, using 3297 listed Chinese firms as the control group. We find that GCC firms face greater transition risks but lower physical risks following the 2021 climate initiatives in the GCC. Triple difference-in-differences analysis reveals that investor preference and regulatory pressure serve as the dominant transmission channels.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109457first seen 2026-07-13 04:53:30
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