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Regional impacts of carbon pricing on emission transfers: A multi-regional CGE analysis of China’s yellow river basin

炭素価格が排出移転に与える地域的影響：中国黄河流域のマルチリージョンCGE分析 (AI 翻訳)

Yongqiang Zhang, Lingli Qi, Longsheng Wu

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-27#炭素価格Origin: CN対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.1057/s41599-026-07722-x
原典: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-07722-x
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は中国黄河流域を対象に、炭素価格（80/140/200元/トン）が生産・消費・貿易ベースの排出と地域間移転に与える影響を、多地域CGEモデルで分析。上流の資源集約型地域（内モンゴル、山西、寧夏）はGDP・排出削減が大きいが、下流地域への影響は限定的。一律価格下での不均等な影響を明らかにし、地域別対策と流域全体の協調を提言。

English

This study uses a multi-regional CGE model to analyze how carbon pricing (80, 140, 200 CNY/t) affects production-, consumption-, and trade-based emissions and interprovincial transfers in China's Yellow River Basin. Resource-intensive upstream provinces (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Ningxia) face larger GDP and emission reductions, while downstream provinces are less affected, highlighting uneven impacts of a uniform carbon price.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本でもGXリーグ等で炭素価格導入が進む中、地域間格差への政策的配慮が重要。中国黄河流域の事例は、日本国内の地域間調整や産業構造の違いに応じた支援策を検討する上で参考になる。

In the global GX context

As China's ETS expands, this paper provides empirical evidence on spatial equity of uniform carbon pricing, relevant to global carbon pricing design. The multi-regional CGE approach can inform other large economies (e.g., EU, US) on regional coordination.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:High-quality multi-regional CGE modeling of carbon pricing impacts with detailed provincial input-output data, useful for spatial CGE methodology.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that uniform carbon pricing creates winners and losers across regions, calling for region-specific mitigation support and basin-wide coordination.

📄 Abstract（原文）

The Yellow River Basin is a key carbon-emitting region in China with significant regional disparities in economic structure and resource endowments. This study employs a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated with 2017 provincial input–output data, to explore how alternative nationwide carbon pricing scenarios, which is motivated by China’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), would affect emissions and interprovincial carbon transfers in the Yellow River Basin under carbon prices of 80, 140, and 200 CNY/ton. We evaluate emissions from production, consumption, and trade-embedded perspectives in order to track how ETS-induced price signals reshape interprovincial embodied carbon flows within the Basin. Our findings indicate that while carbon pricing reduces the magnitude of interprovincial carbon emissions transfer, the general spatial pattern remains relatively stable across scenarios. Resource-intensive upstream provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Ningxia experience more significant reductions in GDP and production-based emissions, while downstream provinces are less affected. The results highlight uneven regional responses to a uniform carbon price and call for region-specific mitigation support and basin-wide coordination to ensure equitable decarbonization.

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