Impact of land use change on the long-term economic value of carbon sequestration in Central Alborz, Iran
土地利用変化が中央アルボルズ（イラン）における炭素隔離の長期経済価値に与える影響 (AI 翻訳)
Halime Joloro, Ghasem Ali Dianati Tilaki, Hadi Memarian, Yahya Kooch
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、イランのコジュール流域を対象に、異なる土地利用転換が炭素隔離の経済価値に与える長期的影響を評価。InVESTモデルとARIMA・GARCHによる炭素価格予測を統合し、正味現在価値（NPV）を算定した。農地・草地から森林への転換が最大の便益をもたらす一方、草地から畑作地への転換は大きな損失を生じることが示された。
English
This study evaluates the long-term economic impact of land use transitions on carbon sequestration in Iran's Kojur watershed using the InVEST model and ARIMA/GARCH carbon price forecasting. Conversion of agricultural and rangeland to forests yields the highest NPV (up to $63,344 by 2050), while conversion of rangelands to rainfed croplands results in significant losses ($31,158). The findings emphasize the importance of land-use planning for carbon sequestration.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
イラン固有の事例だが、炭素価格の将来予測を土地利用意思決定に組み込む手法は、日本の森林・農地管理における炭素吸収源評価にも応用可能。GX政策における土地利用の経済評価の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Although geographically specific to Iran, this study provides a methodological framework integrating carbon price forecasting with land-use NPV analysis that can inform global carbon sequestration strategies and land-use policy decisions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for researchers studying economic valuation of ecosystem services and carbon sequestration under land-use change.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the economic rationale for protecting forests and avoiding conversion to cropland, supporting land-use planning and carbon sink policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Land use change plays a pivotal role in determining the economic value of ecosystem services, especially carbon sequestration. This study investigates the long-term effects of different land use transitions on the valuation of carbon sequestration in the Kojur watershed, located in the central Alborz region of Iran, over five time periods: 2003-2013, 2003-2023, 2013-2023, 2023-2035, and 2023-2050. By integrating spatial datasets into the InVEST modeling framework, land use scenarios were evaluated comparatively to estimate the net present value (NPV). Also, to improve the accuracy of estimating the economic value of carbon sequestration, the future trend of carbon price was forecasted using ARIMA and GARCH time series models to realistically incorporate price changes in future periods into NPV calculations. The analysis included a carbon price of US$96 per tonne, a discount rate of 4%, and an annual carbon price growth rate of 0.44%. The Net Present Value (NPV) analysis revealed that the conversion of agricultural and rangeland areas to forests yields the highest long-term economic benefits, increasing from US$11,433 in the period 2003-2013 to US$63,344 by 2050. Conversely, the conversion of rangelands to rainfed croplands resulted in the most substantial economic losses, reaching US$31,158 in the long term (2050). The findings show that converting agricultural and rangeland areas to forests consistently yielded the highest long-term economic benefits, while converting from rangelands to rainfed croplands resulted in significant economic losses. These results emphasize the need for careful land-use planning and the protection of natural vegetation as essential tools in countering the negative impacts of land-use change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-58621-9first seen 2026-07-13 04:59:41
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。