Energy Transition, Financial Development, and Load Capacity Factor in Bangladesh: Asymmetric Effects and Rapid Renewable Growth
バングラデシュにおけるエネルギー転換、金融発展、負荷容量係数：非対称効果と急速な再生可能エネルギー成長 (AI 翻訳)
Masud MR, Hasan R, Rahman MM
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
バングラデシュの1976～2024年のデータを用い、エネルギー転換と金融発展が生態学的持続可能性（Load Capacity Factor）に与える影響を分析。NARDLや分位点ARDLなどの手法で、化石燃料は長期的に悪影響を与える一方、再生可能エネルギーの効果はシェア不足で統計的に有意ではないが、2030年代後半までに急速な再エネ転換で持続可能性基準を達成可能と予測。
English
This study examines asymmetric effects of energy transition and financial development on Bangladesh's Load Capacity Factor (LCF) from 1976-2024 using NARDL, quantile ARDL, and scenario forecasting. Fossil fuels undermine long-run ecological sustainability, while renewable energy shows insignificant long-run effects due to its low share. Scenario forecasts suggest that only rapid renewable or net-zero pathways can raise LCF above sustainability thresholds by the late 2030s.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
バングラデシュに焦点を当てた研究であり、日本のGX文脈への直接的な関連性は低いが、再生可能エネルギー導入の遅れがもたらす影響や非対称効果の分析方法は、日本のエネルギー政策評価にも示唆を与える可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on the asymmetric impacts of energy transition in a developing economy, highlighting the critical role of renewable energy deployment speed. The scenario forecasting methodology and policy implications for achieving sustainability thresholds are relevant for global energy transition discussions, especially in emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Empirical methods (NARDL, quantile ARDL) and scenario forecasting for energy transition analysis in developing countries.
🏢実務担当者:Insights on renewable energy investment timing and financial sector role in supporting sustainability transitions.
🏛政策担当者:Policy implications for accelerating renewable deployment to meet ecological sustainability targets by 2030s.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>Can renewable energy alone restore ecological balance in Bangladesh? We investigate the asymmetric and distributional effects of energy transition and financial development on the Load Capacity Factor (LCF) from 1976 to 2024. Using NARDL, quantile ARDL, Fourier breaks, and scenario forecasting, we find that fossil fuels undermine ecological sustainability in the long run, while renewable energy does not exhibit a statistically significant long-run effect due to the limited share of renewables in the energy mix rather than an absence of environmental benefits. The analysis also finds no robust evidence of credit asymmetry, and the short-run impact of renewable energy remains broadly similar across different levels of ecological deficit. Looking ahead, scenario forecasts indicate that only a swift transition to renewable energy or a Net Zero pathway can elevate the LCF above the sustainability threshold by the late 2030s. The findings highlight the importance of speeding up renewable energy deployment and directing finance towards sustainable investments. JEL Classification: Q53, Q56, Q42, Q43, C22, G21, O16, O13</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10004993/v1first seen 2026-07-16 04:43:40
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