Unlocking the financing potential of forest-based carbon assets: a valuation framework for pledge lending under uncertainty in China
森林系炭素資産の資金調達可能性を引き出す：中国における不確実性下の担保貸付のための評価枠組み (AI 翻訳)
Yan Zhang, Jingyu Zhang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、森林炭素クレジットを担保とする融資の評価枠組みを提案。中国雲南省の事例（5万1365ムー、71万9680トンCO2e）に適用し、炭素価格予測とオプション評価を組み合わせ、担保評価額は7171万元だが、現実的な貸付可能額は592万元にとどまることを示した。資金調達能力は炭素価格、有効引渡可能性、ボラティリティ、閾値設定に強く依存する。
English
This paper develops a valuation framework for forest-based carbon collateral, combining carbon price forecasting from thin CCER trading data with option valuation and a lender-oriented pledge rate equation. Applied to a case in Yunnan, China (51,365 mu, 719,680 tCO2e), it shows that while option-adjusted collateral value reaches CNY 71.87 million, the lower-bound pledgeable amount is only CNY 5.92 million, below the actual loan of CNY 12 million. Financing capacity is jointly shaped by carbon price, effective deliverability, volatility, and threshold calibration.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では森林吸収源クレジット（J-クレジット）の活用が進むが、担保価値評価の枠組みは未確立。本論文の契約整合的な評価手法は、日本の森林炭素クレジットを活用したグリーン融資設計に示唆を与える。ただし、中国CCER市場特有の制度設計を反映しているため、そのまま適用には調整が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper addresses a critical gap in carbon finance: translating collateral value into lendable value under uncertainty. Its contract-consistent framework combining carbon price forecasting, option pricing, and prudential thresholds is highly relevant for global carbon markets, especially as voluntary and compliance markets seek to scale forest-based offsets. The findings highlight the gap between theoretical asset value and bank-recognized lending capacity, informing green credit policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel methodology integrating carbon price forecasting, real options, and collateral valuation, applicable to other carbon credit contexts.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a practical framework for banks and project developers to assess the lending potential of forest carbon assets.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for standardized valuation and prudential guidelines to unlock green credit for forest carbon projects.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Forest-based carbon assets are increasingly proposed as collateral for green credit, yet a central problem remains unresolved: a higher collateral valuation does not necessarily translate into greater lendable value. Here we develop a contract-consistent framework for pricing forest-based carbon collateral under uncertainty and apply it to the Ning'er afforestation case in Yunnan, China, covering 51,365 mu and 719,680 t [Formula: see text] e of expected carbon assets. The framework combines weekly carbon-price forecasting from thin and irregular China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) trading data with threshold-based option valuation and a lender-oriented pledge-rate equation anchored to the observed three-year loan structure. Using weekly pre-loan transactions from 31 August 2018 to 30 September 2022, we show that incorporating uncertainty and timing flexibility raises the option-adjusted collateral value to CNY 71.87 million. However, once effective deliverability, downside protection and prudential threshold calibration are imposed, the model-implied lower-bound pledgeable amount is only CNY 5.92 million, below the realised loan of CNY 12 million. Sensitivity analysis further shows that financing capacity is jointly shaped by carbon price, effective deliverability, volatility identification and threshold calibration. Our results show that valuing forest-based carbon assets for lending is not a single-stage asset-pricing problem, but a constrained translation problem between economic collateral value and lender-recognised lendable value.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-53268-yfirst seen 2026-05-21 04:53:45
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