Does Transition Finance Absorb or Transmit Critical-Material Risk? Green Bonds, Rare-Earth Markets, and Geopolitical Supply Concentration
トランジション・ファイナンスはクリティカル・マテリアルリスクを吸収するか、それとも伝達するか？グリーンボンド、レアアース市場、地政学的供給集中 (AI 翻訳)
Stéphane Goutte, Lisa Depraiter, Jelena Jovovic, Adel Ben Youssef
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、グリーンボンドがレアアース価格変動リスクをヘッジするか、あるいは増幅するかを2018〜2025年のデータで分析。DCC-GARCH、マルコフ転換モデル、ウェーブレットコヒーレンス等を用いた結果、平時は分散効果があるが、市場ストレス時には状態依存的にヘッジ効果が発揮される。しかし地政学的リスクが高まると共変動が増加し、ヘッジ効果が弱まる。クリティカルマテリアルの供給集中がトランジション・ファイナンスのリスクに直結することを示唆。
English
This paper examines whether green bonds hedge or amplify rare earth element (REE) price risk using 2018-2025 data. It applies DCC-GARCH, Markov-switching models, and wavelet coherence. Results show that while green bonds offer diversification benefits in normal times, they provide conditional hedging during financial stress but lose effectiveness under geopolitical supply risks. The study finds that green bonds inherit critical material concentration risk rather than diversifying it away, with direct implications for transition finance cost and security.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はレアアースの大半を中国に依存しており、供給途絶リスクが高い。本論文の知見は、日本のトランジション・ファイナンス戦略において、グリーンボンド発行がクリティカルマテリアル価格変動に脆弱であることを示し、資源安全保障と脱炭素投資の両立を考える上で重要な示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global discourse on transition finance by empirically linking green bond performance to critical material risk, a underexplored dimension. It highlights that the resilience of green bonds is contingent on geopolitical supply stability, challenging the assumption of unconditional hedging benefits. For ISSB/TCFD-aligned reporting, it underscores the need to integrate material supply chain risk into climate risk disclosures.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous empirical framework (DCC-GARCH, Markov-switching, wavelet) for analyzing state-dependent hedging between green bonds and critical material markets, advancing the transition finance literature.
🏢実務担当者:Green bond investors and issuers should assess exposure to critical material price risk and consider diversification strategies beyond conventional assets, especially under geopolitical stress.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators and central banks should incorporate critical material supply concentration into financial stability assessments for green finance and design policies to de-risk supply chains for the energy transition.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Critical raw materials such as rare earths are essential, hard to substitute, and supplied under acute geopolitical concentration, making their price risk a first-order concern for financing the energy transition. This paper asks whether green bonds-the principal instrument of transition finance-absorb or transmit this risk, that is, whether they hedge volatility in rare earth element (REE) markets central to the low-carbon transition. Using weekly data for the S&P Green Bond Index and four key REEs over 2018-2025, we apply a multi-method framework combining DCC-GARCH, Markov-switching models, wavelet coherence, and risk-conditioning techniques. Dependence between green bonds and REEs is generally weak and time-varying, supporting diversification benefits. However, the relationship is highly state-dependent: correlations decline and turn negative for several REEs during market stress, indicating conditional hedging and selective safe-haven behaviour. Spillover analysis shows that REE markets are dominant transmitters of shocks, while green bonds remain largely insulated. Amid elevated geopolitical and climate risk, co-movement rises across most elements, weakening hedging effectiveness. The resilience of green bonds is therefore heterogeneous and contingent on both market regimes and material-specific dynamics. Critically, this resilience is source-dependent: the hedging benefit is present under financial-market stress but eroded under supply-side geopolitical risk in strategically concentrated critical-raw-material markets. Green finance thus inherits, rather than diversifies away, critical-material concentration risk precisely when supply disruptions are most acute-a finding with direct implications for critical-raw-material security and the cost of transition capital.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05666402first seen 2026-06-29 05:12:03 · last seen 2026-06-29 05:12:10
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。