When Energy Efficiency Backfires: Behavioral Rebound Effects Offset Carbon Savings in Mercantile Buildings
エネルギー効率が逆効果になるとき：行動リバウンド効果が商業ビルの炭素削減を相殺する (AI 翻訳)
Oğuzhan ÖZYİĞİT, Gencay Coskun, İrfan AKYÜZ, Mehmet Emre Camlıbel, Emrah Cengiz
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
米国の商業ビルで室内温度設定を1〜3℃上げると、冷房需要削減による炭素節約が、快適性向上による消費増加で相殺され、正味で3.16〜21.26 Mt CO2の排出増となる。モンテカルロ分析でも全シミュレーションで正味増加を確認。行動リバウンドを無視すると効率対策の気候便益を過大評価することを示す。
English
Raising indoor temperature setpoints in U.S. mercantile buildings by 1–3 °C reduces cooling energy but triggers behavioral rebound: longer customer dwell times and increased spending generate consumption-driven emissions that exceed operational savings, resulting in net carbon increases of 3.16–21.26 Mt CO2. Monte Carlo analysis confirms positive net impact in all simulations. Policy assessments must incorporate rebound effects.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の建物エネルギー効率政策（例えば省エネ法の温度設定推奨）においても、行動リバウンドを考慮しないと、実際の温室効果ガス削減効果を過大評価する可能性を示唆。日本の商業ビルでも快適性向上による消費行動変化が炭素収支に影響しうる。
In the global GX context
This paper highlights a critical blind spot in global building decarbonization frameworks (e.g., TCFD, ISSB): operational carbon savings from efficiency measures can be offset by consumption-driven emissions from behavioral rebound. For corporate climate disclosures, it underscores the need to include Scope 3 downstream effects when reporting building efficiency initiatives.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides an integrated carbon-accounting framework that quantifies rebound effects in commercial buildings, with robust Monte Carlo validation.
🏢実務担当者:Building owners should consider that simple temperature adjustments may not yield net carbon reductions if customer behavior changes; comprehensive carbon accounting is needed.
🏛政策担当者:Energy efficiency regulations should account for behavioral rebound to avoid overestimating climate benefits; a consumption-based carbon accounting perspective is essential.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Raising indoor temperature setpoints is widely promoted as a practical way to reduce cooling-related energy demand in commercial buildings, yet its net carbon impact becomes uncertain once behavioral rebound effects are considered. This study develops an integrated carbon-accounting framework to evaluate the climate implications of summer indoor temperature increases of 1–3 °C in U.S. mercantile buildings. The framework combines operational energy savings from reduced cooling demand with consumption-driven emissions arising from longer customer dwell times and increased consumer spending under improved thermal comfort conditions. Carbon outcomes are quantified using sector-level electricity data and the USEEIO emission factor for retail trade. The results reveal a clear imbalance: operational carbon savings range from 0.21 to 0.64 Mt CO2, whereas consumption-driven emissions range from 3.37 to 21.90 Mt CO2, yielding a consistently positive net carbon impact of 3.16–21.26 Mt CO2 across all scenarios. A break-even analysis indicates that only 1.30–3.89 billion USD in additional spending is sufficient to offset the operational savings. The findings remained robust across alternative behavioral and carbon-accounting specifications; a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo analysis produced positive net carbon impacts in every simulation (median 8.54 Mt CO2; P(NCI > 0) = 1.00). Overall, the results suggest that temperature-based efficiency measures may overstate their climate benefits when behavioral responses are ignored, highlighting the importance of incorporating rebound effects into building energy assessments and commercial climate policy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136784first seen 2026-07-05 05:06:22
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