A provincial-level modeling framework for integrated building stock-energy-material-carbon assessment in China
中国における統合的な建物ストック・エネルギー・材料・カーボン評価のための州レベルのモデリングフレームワーク (AI 翻訳)
Siqi Chen, Fei Guo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、建物ストック、エネルギー需要、材料需要、炭素排出、低炭素移行を統合的に評価するMESSAGEix-China-Building-R31モデルを開発した。2025年から2100年までの中国31州を対象とし、歴史的な建物動態とエネルギー原単位を再現可能である。このモデルにより、州固有の低炭素移行経路の探索が可能となり、他の新興国への応用も期待される。
English
This study develops the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model, an integrated framework for building stock, energy demand, material demand, carbon emissions, and low-carbon transition across 31 Chinese provinces from 2025 to 2100. The model reliably reproduces historical building vintage dynamics and end-use energy intensities, enabling exploration of province-specific decarbonization pathways. It also provides a transferable methodology for other large emerging economies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、ZEH・ZEBや省エネ基準の強化など建築物の脱炭素化が進められているが、地域ごとの建物ストック特性を考慮した統合的な評価手法は限られている。本モデルは、ストック・エネルギー・素材・炭素を連動させる枠組みを提供し、日本の都道府県レベルでの長期戦略立案にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
The building sector is critical for global net-zero goals, yet most assessments lack integration of stock turnover with energy and material flows. This framework addresses that gap for China, the world's largest building market, and is transferable to other large economies. It supports province-specific policy design aligned with IPCC pathways and can inform similar integrated assessments globally.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides an integrated modeling methodology for building sector decarbonization that can be adapted to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a tool for assessing long-term building stock and energy strategies, useful for urban planners and energy companies.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the value of province-specific low-carbon pathways for building sector, supporting targeted policy interventions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract The building sector plays a pivotal role in global climate governance and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. However, most existing assessments of long-term low-carbon transitions in the building sector rely on analytical frameworks that decouple building energy use and carbon emissions from vintage-tracked building stock turnover. This disconnect limits the development of coherent and effective long-term decarbonization strategies for the sector. To address this gap, this study develops the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model, an integrated modeling framework comprising five core modules: building stock turnover, energy demand, material demand, carbon emissions, and low-carbon transition. The framework captures the coupled evolution of stock–energy–material–carbon interactions across 31 Chinese provinces (The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan province are not included due to data availability) from 2025 to 2100. Calibration results demonstrate that the model can reliably reproduce historical building vintage dynamics and end-use energy intensities. As a comprehensive quantitative analysis tool, the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model enables the exploration of province-specific and heterogeneous low-carbon transition pathways for China’s building sector by systematically linking key factors, including floor space demand projections, building stock evolution, occupant energy-use behavior, and low-carbon material strategies. The proposed modeling framework also provides a transferable methodological reference for other large emerging economies facing similar decarbonization challenges in the building sector.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.26599/ecm.2026.9400037first seen 2026-06-29 05:43:55
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