Regional inequality and driving factors behind low-carbon energy transition in China’s provinces
中国各省の低炭素エネルギー転換における地域的不平等と推進要因 (AI 翻訳)
Lianghan Cong, Shuaiyi Lu, Pan Jiang, Xiaoshu Lü
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、2012～2022年の中国30省のパネルデータを用い、GTWR、XGBoost、SHAPを組み合わせた分析により、低炭素エネルギー転換の地域的不平等と駆動要因を解明した。結果、東部と西部の持続的な格差や、グリーン技術イノベーションの強い正の効果、政府介入の時期的変化などが明らかになった。非線形の閾値効果も確認され、地域格差是正に向けた政策示唆を提供する。
English
Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2012-2022), this study integrates GTWR, XGBoost, and SHAP to examine driving mechanisms of low-carbon energy transition from a regional inequality perspective. Results reveal persistent east-west disparities, spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and that green technology innovation has the strongest positive effect, while government intervention shifted from negative to positive over time. Nonlinear threshold effects (e.g., U-shaped government intervention) underscore the need for targeted policies to reduce regional gaps.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は中国の事例だが、日本でも地域間のエネルギー転換格差（例：北海道と首都圏）が政策課題であり、分析手法（GTWR+XGBoost+SHAP）は日本の都道府県データへの応用が可能。政府介入の効果が時間とともに変化する点は、日本のGX政策の評価にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study offers a novel analytical framework (GTWR+XGBoost+SHAP) that can be applied to regional decarbonization dynamics globally. Its findings on spatiotemporal heterogeneity and nonlinear policy effects inform ISSB-aligned transition planning and national climate strategies. The Chinese case provides a valuable benchmark for other developing countries facing regional inequality in low-carbon transitions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers can adopt the GTWR+XGBoost+SHAP framework for regional low-carbon transition analysis and validate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity findings in other contexts.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use the identified drivers (green innovation, government intervention) to inform regional investment and risk assessment in China's energy transition.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can leverage the evidence on persistent east-west gaps and non-linear effects to design targeted technology diffusion and financial support measures for less-developed provinces.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Accelerating the transition of China’s energy consumption structure toward low-carbon development is essential for achieving global carbon neutrality goals. As the country with the world’s largest share of energy-related emissions, China provides a critical case in which substantial provincial disparities remain. Using panel data from 30 provinces from 2012 to 2022, this study develops an integrated framework combining Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to examine the driving mechanisms of low-carbon energy transition from a regional inequality perspective. The results reveal persistent east–west disparities, significant spatial clustering, and clear temporal shifts in the effects of key drivers. Results reveal pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Green technology innovation consistently showed the strongest positive effect, while industrialization and urban–rural income gaps exerted stronger negative impacts in central and western regions. Government intervention shifted from a negative factor in early years to a positive driver in later years, which reflects the evolving role of policy in steering decarbonization. Moreover, nonlinear threshold effects were identified, such as U-shaped impacts of government intervention and scale-sensitive effects of afforestation. Findings show that China’s low-carbon transition is evolving from regional heterogeneity toward policy convergence, yet inequalities remain significant. These results underscore the need for targeted strategies for reducing disparities, including technology diffusion and financial support in less-developed provinces, to ensure a more balanced and equitable energy transition. This study contributes new empirical insights to understanding low-carbon drivers and designing decarbonization policies for ensuring an equitable and coordinated national transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-026-00422-xfirst seen 2026-05-21 04:44:50
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