Carbon prices and inflation in a world of shocks: Systemically significant prices and industrial policy targeting in Germany
ショックの世界における炭素価格とインフレ：ドイツにおけるシステム的に重要な価格と産業政策のターゲティング (AI 翻訳)
Isabella M. Weber, Jan-Erik Thie, Jesus Lara Jauregui, Lucas Teixeira
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
気候変動と地政学的緊張が供給ショックを増大させ、排出権取引制度がインフレを引き起こす「カーボンフレーション」を分析。ドイツの産業連関表を用いたシミュレーションにより、わずか6つのシステム的に重要なセクターが潜在的なカーボンフレーションの91.3％を説明することを示した。代替効果や転嫁率の仮定を変えても結果は頑健で、脱炭素政策と物価安定の両立に向けた示唆を与える。
English
This paper examines how carbon pricing via emissions trading can trigger inflation ('carbonflation') in a world of supply shocks. Using an input-output price model for Germany, it finds that just six systemically significant sectors account for up to 91.3% of potential carbonflation. The results are robust to varying substitution and passthrough assumptions, informing decarbonization policies that balance transition with price stability.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもGX-ETSやカーボンプライシングの本格導入が検討される中、カーボンフレーションのリスクは実務的に関心が高い。本論文が特定した「システム的に重要なセクター」の考え方は、日本の産業構造に応じたカーボンプライシング設計や、エネルギー・素材業界の価格転嫁対策に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As the EU ETS expands and carbon border adjustments take effect, this paper provides a rigorous framework for understanding which sectors cause or suffer most from carbonflation globally. Its identification of CPI weight, price volatility, and upstreamness as pathways to systemic significance is directly relevant for policy design in other jurisdictions, including the UK, China, and emerging ETS schemes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Input-output price modeling approach and the concept of systemic significance for carbonflation are novel contributions to the climate-economy literature.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate strategists in energy-intensive sectors can use the sectoral vulnerability insights to anticipate cost pass-through and adjust pricing or hedging strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators designing carbon pricing should note the concentration of inflation risk in a few sectors and consider complementary measures to mitigate carbonflation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change and geopolitical tensions render supply shocks more likely, which can trigger inflation (“shockflation”). Additionally, the EU's reliance upon an emissions trading system as its chief climate mitigation policy can give rise to inflation (“carbonflation”). Through simulations using an input-output price model for Germany, we show that the same systemically significant sectors – those essential for human livelihoods, production and commerce – present points of vulnerability for shockflation and also carbonflation, if carbon markets are the only policy tool deployed to cut emissions. A total of up to 91.3 percent of potential carbonflation can be attributed to just six systemically significant sectors. Our findings remain robust under varying assumptions regarding substitution and passthrough effects. We identify three pathways to systemic significance: CPI weight, price volatility and upstreamness. This can inform decarbonization policies that pursue both a green transition of the energy system and stabilization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115395first seen 2026-06-29 04:59:24 · last seen 2026-06-29 04:59:33
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