Linking Rainfall Intensity Variability to Local Adaptation Responses and Traditional Knowledge: A Mixed-Methods Case Study for Food Security Resilience in Boja, Indonesia
降雨強度変動と地域適応対応及び伝統的知識の関連付け：インドネシア・ボジャにおける食料安全保障レジリエンスの混合手法ケーススタディ (AI 翻訳)
S. Basuki, Wahyudi Hariyanto, F. D. Arianti, R. Oelviani, S. Samijan, J. Triastono, Joko Pramono, M. N. Setiapermas, Arnis Rachmadhani, Lilam Kadarin Nuriyanto, Dedi Sugandi, Chanifah Chanifah, Tri Martini, I. S. Anugrah, Ansaar Ansaar, M. E. Wulanjari, S. Minarsih, Dewi Sahara, R. Heryanto, Yulis Hindarwati
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシア・中部ジャワの天水田稲作システムを対象に、25年間の気候データ、生産量、世帯適応を分析。主成分回帰により気候-生産のデカップリングを明らかにし、気候指数は生産変動の7.9%しか説明しない。貯蔵後の収益性はマイナスであり、伝統的知識の疎外が進行。政策フレームワークを提案。
English
This mixed-methods study in Central Java analyzes 25 years of climate, rice production, and household adaptation. Principal Component Regression reveals climate-production decoupling, with climate explaining only 7.9% of yield variation. The post-harvest storage system shows negative returns, and traditional knowledge is being eroded. A stratified policy framework is proposed to prevent maladaptation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の農業GXにおいても、気候変動適応策の実効性評価や伝統的知識の活用は重要。本論文の混合手法アプローチは、日本の小規模農家の適応策評価に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on climate adaptation in smallholder agriculture, relevant to global discussions on food security under climate change. The mixed-methods approach and policy framework could inform adaptation strategies in other developing regions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Highlights the need for multi-dimensional adaptation analysis beyond climate-yield correlations.
🏢実務担当者:Provides insights on hidden costs of traditional storage systems and potential maladaptation risks.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests stratified policy interventions at village, subdistrict, and regency levels for climate adaptation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The rainfed paddy farming system faces profound vulnerabilities due to daily climate non-stationarity. This mixed-methods study in Central Java analyses daily climate signals, total rice production, and household adaptation over 25 years (2001–2025). Moving beyond simple correlation, a Principal Component Regression model integrating five climate variables and three agronomic confounders reveals a profound climate–production decoupling. The composite climate index explains only 7.9% of total production variation, while non-climate factors account for 92.1%. Physical stability is maintained through asymmetric temporal scheduling and a distinct hierarchy of responses, employing active, planned adaptations alongside passive, reactive coping. However, quantitative household evaluation reveals this tonnage stability incurs severe hidden costs; the titip gabah post-harvest system maintains a high Yield Stability Index (0.93) but yields a negative Return on Storage (−7.15%), functioning as a risk-mitigation buffer rather than a profit-maximising tool. Furthermore, climate anomalies drive the progressive alienation of traditional ethnoclimatological knowledge, forcing a cognitive shift toward hybridised decision-making. To prevent passive coping from evolving into systemic maladaptation, we propose a stratified policy framework ranging from village-level knowledge integration and Subdistrict daily risk warnings to regency-level subsidies targeted at smallholders (<0.5 ha).
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14070145first seen 2026-07-13 07:28:46
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