Scenario Analysis of Risks and Opportunities in Kazakhstan’s Industrial Transition to Carbon Neutrality
カザフスタンの産業のカーボンニュートラル移行におけるリスクと機会のシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)
L. Khuanysh, Zhanar Dauletkhanova, Aliya Yerniyazova
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
カザフスタンの産業脱炭素化におけるリスク・機会統合フレームワークを開発。シナリオ分析により、BAUシナリオでは2050年にCO2排出量が322.5百万トンに増加する一方、野心的シナリオでは35百万トン（2024年比84%減）に低減可能と示した。移行経済特有の課題を理論化し、政策・企業戦略への示唆を提供。
English
Develops an integrated risk and opportunity management framework for industrial decarbonization in Kazakhstan. Scenario analysis shows that under business-as-usual, CO2 emissions could reach 322.5 Mt by 2050, while an ambitious scenario reduces them to 35 Mt (84% below 2024 levels). Extends sustainability theory to transition economies with legacy infrastructure and resource dependence.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
カザフスタンは日本と産業構造が異なるが、脱炭素シナリオの構築手法は、日本企業が海外事業（特に資源国）でGX戦略を策定する際に参考となる。また、SSBJが求めるシナリオ分析の実践例としても有用。
In the global GX context
This study adds empirical evidence from a resource-rich transition economy (Kazakhstan) to the global GX scholarship. Its scenario analysis approach is directly relevant to TCFD and ISSB frameworks for climate-related risk and opportunity assessment, especially in emerging markets with legacy infrastructure and resource dependence.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework for scenario analysis in transition economies, useful for comparative studies on industrial decarbonization pathways.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a practical risk-opportunity assessment framework for carbon-intensive industries in resource-dependent countries, supporting strategic planning under carbon neutrality goals.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of scenario-based policy formulation for industrial decarbonization, especially in countries with legacy infrastructure and institutional capacity constraints.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The transition to carbon neutrality represents a strategic imperative for large industrial companies in Kazakhstan in the context of global climate challenges and increasingly stringent environmental requirements. The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated risk and opportunity management framework for industrial decarbonization in Kazakhstan based on scenario modelling and expert assessment. The study uses a mixed methodological approach combining quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis. The empirical basis of the study was made up of sectoral data on greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakhstan’s industry for 2015-2024, official statistics from government agencies, corporate non-financial reports, as well as the results of 32 semi-structured expert interviews with representatives of industrial companies, government regulators and international organizations. The results of the study show that Kazakhstan’s industrial CO2 emissions increased 18.1% from 224.7 million tonnes (2015) to 265.4 million tons (2024), with metallurgy accounting for 35.9%, energy 28.1%, oil and gas 22.8%, and chemicals 13.4%. Scenario analysis shows that under the business-as-usual scenario, emissions could increase to 322.5 million tons of CO2 by 2050, while the moderate scenario reduces emissions to 102.3 million tons (55% compared to 2024), and the ambitious scenario to 35 million tons (-84%). This research extends sustainability theory by demonstrating how to transition economy characteristics-legacy infrastructure, resource dependence, institutional capacity-shape decarbonization pathways, providing actionable insights for climate policy formulation and corporate strategy in resource-rich developing nations.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.47703/2789-8253-2026-1-19-35first seen 2026-06-29 08:40:17
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