Contrasting surface and column-averaged CO ₂ responses over terrestrial China under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality emission pathways: anthropogenic, biospheric, and regional transport contributions

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🔬研究者:Provides a method for decomposing anthropogenic vs. biospheric contributions to CO2 changes under emission scenarios, useful for modeling studies.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that atmospheric CO2 responses to emission pathways are modulated by regional transport and biospheric fluxes, emphasizing the need for integrated monitoring and attribution systems for climate policy verification.

Abstract. Understanding how changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions affect surface CO2 mole fraction (surface CO2), column-averaged dry-air CO2 mole fraction (XCO2), and the relative contributions of anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes is essential for evaluating the atmospheric effects of emission mitigation. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (WRF-VPRM) was used to simulate three emission scenarios: a 2016 baseline, a 2030 carbon peaking scenario, and a 2060 carbon neutrality scenario, under identical meteorological fields constrained by observations. Contribution decomposition, sensitivity experiments, backward trajectory analysis, and potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis were combined to diagnose the response mechanisms of atmospheric CO2. Anthropogenic emissions increased by 18.1 % in 2030 relative to 2016, whereas surface CO2 and XCO2 increased by only 0.363 and 0.065 ppm, respectively. In 2060, emissions decreased by 90.3 %, reducing surface CO2 and XCO2 by 1.914 and 0.359 ppm, respectively. The XCO2 response was therefore much weaker than the surface CO2 response. Anthropogenic contributions dominated the differences among scenarios, while biospheric fluxes shaped seasonal variations and became relatively more important under deep emission reductions. The selected high-CO2 episodes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region were strongly modulated by meteorological conditions. Local accumulation dominated under stagnant conditions, whereas upstream transport dominated under favorable transport conditions. These results indicate that atmospheric CO2 responses to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality pathways are jointly shaped by anthropogenic mitigation, biospheric fluxes, and regional transport.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3527first seen 2026-07-13 05:39:48