Climate Risk (Physical and Transition) on Financial Stability: Impact Modeling in Credit and Market Scenarios
クライマティックリスク（物理的および移行的）が金融安定性に与える影響：信用および市場シナリオにおけるインパクトモデリング (AI 翻訳)
Meyzeluna Afania
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、インドネシアの金融安定性に対する気候変動の物理的リスクと移行リスクの影響を分析する。物理的リスクは不良債権比率の上昇を通じて信用リスクを悪化させ、移行リスクはカーボンポリシーによる市場変動と資産価値下落を引き起こす。シグナリング理論と財務困難理論に基づき、気候関連コストが企業の純利益とキャッシュフローを侵蚀し、倒産の主因となることを示す。また、ERMとグリーンスククの導入がリスク軽減に有効と提言する。
English
This study examines the impact of physical and transition climate risks on Indonesia's financial stability. Physical risks increase credit risk via NPL ratios, while transition risks cause market volatility and asset devaluation. Using Signaling Theory and Financial Distress Theory, it finds that climate-induced costs erode net profit and cash flow, leading to corporate insolvency. The paper recommends Enterprise Risk Management and Green Sukuk as mitigation strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文はインドネシアを対象とするが、日本でも気候変動が金融機関のポートフォリオに与える影響を評価する枠組みとして参考になる。特にグリーンスククなど移行金融商品の活用は、日本のESG投資や開示制度（SSBJ）と連動する可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This paper adds to the global literature on climate risk and financial stability by modeling both physical and transition channels in an emerging market context. Its findings on Green Sukuk as a mitigation tool are relevant for transition finance discussions and climate stress testing practices worldwide.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a theoretical and empirical framework for modeling climate risk impacts on credit and market risk, applicable to other emerging economies.
🏢実務担当者:Banks and financial institutions in climate-exposed regions can use these insights to integrate physical and transition risk into credit assessment and explore green financing instruments.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators should consider climate stress testing and develop green finance instruments like Green Sukuk to enhance financial system resilience.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the systemic impact of climate change on Indonesia's financial stability through physical and transition risk channels. Physical risks, such as extreme weather, are modeled to escalate credit risk by increasing Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios due to asset impairment. Simultaneously, transition risks—driven by carbon policies—trigger market volatility and asset devaluation. Integrating Signaling Theory and Financial Distress Theory, this research aligns with the framework of Oktasari et al. (2022), identifying that climate-induced costs erode net profit and cash flow, thereby serving as primary catalysts for corporate insolvency. The findings suggest that implementing Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and Green Sukuk is essential for mitigating these risks. This paper provides a strategic foundation for regulators and financial institutions to build climate-resilient financial frameworks.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6060594first seen 2026-06-29 08:15:34
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