Evaluating UK Energy Transition Pathways Using a Closed-Loop Framework for Heterogeneous AgentBased Investors
閉ループフレームワークを用いた異質なエージェントベース投資家による英国のエネルギー転換経路の評価 (AI 翻訳)
Xuan Wu, Jack Gower, Solomon F. Brown
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、英国の電力市場向けにエージェントベースの投資家を統合した閉ループフレームワークを提案する。中程度の設備投資シナリオでは低設備投資シナリオよりも総容量が増加し、高太陽光比率が「カニバリゼーション」効果を引き起こすことを示す。また、年間系統接続制限の緩和が接続容量を押し上げることを明らかにした。
English
This paper presents a closed-loop framework combining an agent-based market simulator with heterogeneous investors for the UK electricity market. It finds that mid-CAPEX leads to higher total capacity than low-CAPEX by 2050, and that high solar penetration causes a cannibalization effect reducing its value factor. Increasing annual grid connection limits boosts final connected capacity by 34.8 GW.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のエネルギー転換においても、系統制約や投資家の多様性が重要である。本論文の閉ループモデルは、日本の再エネ導入政策（例：系統接続枠）の設計に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
The closed-loop agent-based framework offers a novel method for modeling investor dynamics under grid constraints. For global audiences, the UK case study highlights the interplay between CAPEX levels, technology mix, and infrastructure policy in achieving net-zero targets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The closed-loop agent-based modeling approach provides a methodological contribution for energy system modelers.
🏢実務担当者:Utilities and investors can use the findings on grid connection limits and technology cannibalization to inform investment strategies.
🏛政策担当者:The paper underscores the importance of grid infrastructure policies (e.g., connection limits) and investor diversity for renewable deployment.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Rapid power system decarbonization requires massive renewable investment, with the UK anticipating $\boldsymbol{\sim} \mathbf{4 0}$ billion annually through $\mathbf{2 0 3 0}$. However, traditional models often decouple investment from market feedback, ignoring construction lead times and grid bottlenecks. Here we present an annual closed-loop framework that combines the AMIRIS market simulator based on the UK electricity market with agent-based investors. We find that Mid- Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) total capacity (435.6 GW) exceeds the Low-CAPEX case (371.3 GW) by 2050. This divergence occurs because low costs favor high-utilization offshore wind, whereas higher wind costs shift investor budgets toward cheaper solar and gas, buying larger total capacities. Consequently, high solar penetration causes a “cannibalization” effect, reducing its value factor to $\mathbf{0. 7 4 6}$. Furthermore, increasing annual grid connection limits from 4 GW to 6 GW boosts final connected capacity by 34.8 GW. These results highlight that infrastructure policy and investor diversity are vital for reaching net-zero goals. Future work will integrate capacity markets and policy subsidies to further enhance model realism.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1109/eem68581.2026.11589838first seen 2026-07-13 06:42:43
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