Assessing the economic viability and scalability of carbon capture (CCS) in Louisiana : a comparative analysis of the 45Q tax credit and the EU emissions trading system
ルイジアナ州における炭素回収・貯留（CCS）の経済的実現可能性と規模拡大可能性の評価：45Q税額控除とEU排出量取引制度の比較分析 (AI 翻訳)
Reinsborough, Kellen Charles
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、米国ルイジアナ州の6つの産業部門におけるCCSの経済性を、45Q税額控除とEU ETSの単独・複合政策下で評価した。標準化された技術経済フレームワークを用い、NPVの感度分析から、政策の安定性と段階的インセンティブの重要性を明らかにした。液化天然ガスや製油所などの脱炭素困難部門には、複数政策の組み合わせが有効であることを示している。
English
This paper evaluates the economic viability of industrial CCS in Louisiana across six sectors under three policy regimes: 45Q tax credit, EU ETS, and a hybrid. Using a standardized techno-economic framework, it finds that commercial factors (credit value, allowance prices, financing terms) dominate NPV outcomes. The hybrid policy yields the largest upside but also higher downside volatility. Results support tiered, sector-specific incentives and highlight the need for policy stability and shared infrastructure.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではCCSの大規模実証や法整備が進むが、インセンティブ設計は未確立。本論文が示す政策の段階的移行やセクター別支援は、日本のCCS導入促進策（例：JOGMECの事業支援、税制優遇）の設計に参考となる。特に、安定した政策枠組みと共通インフラ整備の重要性は、日本の CCS バリューチェーン構築に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper directly compares two major policy instruments (tax credit vs. emissions trading) for CCS, a core GX technology. The findings on policy stability, tiered incentives, and hybrid approaches are relevant for global policymakers designing CCS support mechanisms (e.g., 45Q in the US, EU Innovation Fund). The sector-specific results (e.g., high-purity vs. hard-to-abate) also inform international carbon accounting and transition finance frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The techno-economic framework (Lang factors, sensitivity analysis) can be adapted for CCS feasibility studies in other regions or for other capture technologies.
🏢実務担当者:Companies in sectors like LNG, refining, and chemicals can use the NPV benchmarks and risk profiles to assess CCS project viability under different policy scenarios.
🏛政策担当者:The comparison of 45Q and EU ETS, especially the hybrid case, provides evidence for designing stable, sector-specific CCS incentives and phasedown schedules.
📄 Abstract（原文）
For the purposes of assessing policy impact on CCS deployment in a favorable test area, industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Louisiana is evaluated across six subsectors, chemicals, power generation, petroleum and natural gas systems, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refineries, and metals, under three policy regimes: 45Q only, EU ETS only, and EU ETS commencing after the 45Q term. A standardized techno-economic framework is applied using amine-based capture as a comparative baseline, with capital cost multipliers (Lang, process and project contingencies, retrofit) and operating expenses varied within Conservative/Base/Optimistic cases. Facility-level emissions are derived from EPA FLIGHT, with scenario inputs constructed from sector literature and market data. Results show that commercial and financial variables, notably the 45Q credit value and duration, ETS allowance prices, and financing terms, dominate NPV outcomes across sectors, frequently shifting capital-intensive projects by hundreds of millions to over a billion dollars. The hybrid policy case (implementing the EU ETS after the 12-year term of the 45Q) yields the largest upside, turning marginal projects positive in LNG and refining, while also expanding downside volatility relative to 45Q alone due to carbon allowance pricing exposure. Operational parameters (capture efficiency, asset life) materially influence ETS-only outcomes, especially in power where the lack of free allocation amplifies penalties, and capital cost assumptions drive sector-specific risk. Findings support tiered, sector-specific incentives: straightforward crediting for high-purity, low-cost streams (e.g., ethanol, ammonia) and layered instruments for hard to decarbonize sectors (LNG, refineries, metals). Policy stability, transparent phasedowns, and shared transport/storage infrastructure are identified as prerequisites for durable CCS deployment in Louisiana.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.26153/tsw/63320first seen 2026-07-09 04:32:30
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