Gas‒electricity price transmission and the 2026 energy shock: evidence from Italy
ガス・電気料金の価格伝達と2026年のエネルギーショック：イタリアからの証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Marco Mele
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、2021～2026年のエネルギー危機がイタリア経済に与えた影響を分析し、天然ガス価格が卸電力価格（PUN）の主要な決定要因であることを示す。VARモデルとインパルス応答関数を用い、ガス価格ショックが電力価格に即時的かつ長期的な影響を及ぼすことを実証。さらに、電力価格がインフレや鉱工業生産に波及する経路をGranger因果検定で確認した。
English
This paper analyzes the impact of the 2021-2026 energy crisis on the Italian economy, showing that natural gas prices are the main driver of wholesale electricity prices (PUN). Using VAR models and impulse response functions, it demonstrates that gas price shocks have immediate and long-term effects on electricity prices. Granger causality tests also show that electricity prices in turn affect inflation and industrial production.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本もLNG依存度が高く、限界費用方式の電力市場を持つため、本論文のガス価格から電気料金への高い転嫁率の知見は、日本のエネルギー政策や企業の調達戦略に示唆を与える。特に、国際ガス価格変動が国内電気料金に直結する脆弱性を再認識させる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides compelling empirical evidence on the gas-to-electricity price pass-through mechanism under marginal pricing, relevant to global markets like the EU and Japan. It underscores the vulnerability of economies heavily reliant on natural gas and supports the case for accelerating renewable energy and diversification to insulate from gas price shocks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The paper offers robust empirical methods (VAR, IRF, Granger causality) for analyzing energy price transmission and macroeconomic spillovers, useful for energy economics research.
🏢実務担当者:Energy procurement and risk management teams can use the pass-through estimates to model electricity cost exposure under gas price scenarios.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators should note the high pass-through and macroeconomic consequences, informing market design and transition strategies to reduce gas dependency.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper analyzes the transmission of the energy crisis of 2021–2026 to the Italian economy, focusing on natural gas prices in electricity price formation. Based on monthly data on TTF gas prices, Brent oil prices, Italian wholesale electricity price (PUN), inflation, industrial production, and electricity demand, the analysis uses baseline regressions, vector autoregressive (VAR) models, impulse response functions (IRFs), and Granger causality tests to analyze the dynamic propagation of energy shocks. The empirical data show that natural gas prices are the main price-driven determinants of wholesale electricity prices in Italy. A substantial and persistent pass-through emerges from TTF gas prices to the PUN; conversely, Brent oil prices turn out not to be statistically significant when gas market dynamics are properly taken into account as well. The VAR and IRF evidence also shows that gas price shocks produce instantaneous and longer-term effects on electricity prices. This provides evidence of a dynamic gas‒electricity transmission mechanism during the sample period. Granger causality studies also make it clear that electricity prices, in turn, affect inflation and industrial production: the electricity market serves as an avenue by which external energy shocks can propagate into both macroeconomic and economic levels. The results provide evidence of significant vulnerability in energy-dependent economies operating under marginal pricing systems heavily tied to natural gas during periods of energy-market stress. More specifically, the paper supports the literature on energy crises by demonstrating that the recent European energy shock appears to differ from traditional oil-oriented crises and is driven to a high extent by natural gas market instability and electricity price transmission modes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2026.2691269first seen 2026-07-16 05:02:08
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