Beyond Consistent Scenarios: Deriving Indirect Influence, Transition Resistance, and Adjustment Dynamics
一貫したシナリオを超えて：間接的影響、移行抵抗、調整ダイナミクスの導出 (AI 翻訳)
Andrew G. Ross, Julia Gershenzon, Andreas Kleefeld
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、線形応答理論を用いてクロスインパクトバランス（CIB）分析を拡張し、4つの分析オブジェクト（クロスインパクト乗数、摂動予算、インパルス応答関数、単位インパルスショックプロファイル）を導出する。これらは移行努力、システムレバー、調整ダイナミクス、構造的レジリエンスを定量化する。エネルギー移行のクロスインパクト行列で実証され、任意の相互依存ネットワークに適用可能。
English
This paper extends Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis by applying Linear Response Theory, deriving four novel analytical objects: the Type I cross-impact multiplier, perturbation budget, impulse response function, and unit-impulse shock profile. These provide measures of transition effort, system levers, adjustment dynamics, and structural resilience. The framework is empirically demonstrated on an energy-transition cross-impact matrix and transfers to any domain with pairwise influence scores.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、2050年カーボンニュートラルに向けたシナリオ分析が重要視されている。本手法は、定性的シナリオの定量評価や政策介入効果の分析に応用可能であり、産業構造転換のダイナミクスを理解する上で有用。
In the global GX context
Globally, transition scenario analysis is a key component of TCFD-aligned climate risk assessment and ISSB standards. This paper provides a rigorous mathematical extension of scenario consistency analysis, enabling quantitative measures of transition effort and system resilience that can inform corporate strategy and policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This paper offers a novel analytical framework for studying transition dynamics, useful for energy system modelers and scenario analysts seeking to quantify systemic interdependencies.
🏛政策担当者:Provides quantitative measures for assessing transition effort and system resilience, informing the design of energy transition policies and investment strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Assessments of structural change and economic transition dynamics, such as those arising in the energy transition, depend on internally consistent qualitative scenarios specifying the policy environment, technology mix, governance arrangements, and demand conditions. Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis derives such socio-technical scenarios as fixed-point attractors of an expert-elicited interdependency network, supplying structural inputs upon which assessment models (including energy system optimisation, agent-based, and general equilibrium frameworks) can draw. Standard CIB, however, delivers only this equilibrium catalogue, leaving four structural questions unanswered: how much network-weighted effort a given transition requires; which components are the true system-wide levers once indirect influence chains are counted; in what sequence the system adjusts; and how the network at a given attractor responds to an external shock. This paper extends CIB through Linear Response Theory, exploiting a structural isomorphism between the CIB drift matrix and the Leontief input-output technology matrix. Four analytical objects are derived in closed form: the Type I cross-impact multiplier, which aggregates all direct and indirect influence chains; the perturbation budget, a network-weighted and directionally asymmetric measure of transition effort; the impulse response function, which traces descriptor adjustment sequences and feedback-induced overshoots; and the unit-impulse shock profile, which characterises attractor-specific network sensitivity and yields a direct measure of structural resilience and susceptibility. The framework is applied empirically to an energy-transition cross-impact matrix, yielding all four objects for five structural equilibria, and transfers to any domain in which pairwise influence scores encode structural interdependencies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- arXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.12414first seen 2026-07-15 04:10:45
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