A power-sector optimization framework for assessing mitigation-adaptation synergies under climate change in a multi-climate country

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Energy system modelers can learn from the integrated modeling approach that captures regional climate variability and combines mitigation and adaptation.

🏢実務担当者:Energy planners in multi-climate countries can use the framework to develop cost-effective capacity expansion plans that account for climate change.

🏛政策担当者:Provides evidence that integrating mitigation and adaptation policies in the power sector can significantly reduce system costs, supporting joint policy design.

Climate change is transforming energy systems by affecting both demand and the performance of generation technologies. However, existing energy models in multi-climate developing countries that assess the impacts of climate change often rely on national-level analyses and do not account for regional climate differences, thereby reducing the accuracy of energy system planning. In addition, mitigation-adaptation interactions have not been examined within a unified modeling framework, which can lead to suboptimal energy planning decisions and higher system costs. In this study, an energy system planning model is developed for a multi-climate developing country under a worst-case climate change scenario, CMIP6 SSP5-8.5. It incorporates climate change impacts across climatic zones, capturing regional differences in power demand and generation potential, and enables the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation within a single model. It is used to quantify climate-driven changes across climatic regions, determine the least-cost capacity mix through 2050, and assess how combined mitigation and adaptation policies affect emissions and total system cost. In this study, adaptation refers to the power sector's adjustment to climate-induced changes in demand, technology performance, and resource availability. Based on IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways, four national scenarios are assessed in the model for Iran: Rocky Road, Divided Road, Highway, and Green Road. The results show significant variability across climatic zones and scenarios. Climate change is also found to enhance renewable energy potential in certain regions, particularly in colder and temperate zones. In Divided Road and Highway, the share of renewables increases by up to 70% compared with Rocky Road. Under Green Road, integrating mitigation and adaptation achieves 2050 targets at approximately USD 27 billion lower total system cost, highlighting the potential mitigation-adaptation synergy in energy planning. The framework is transferable to other multi-climate countries for evaluating climate impacts and jointly optimizing mitigation and adaptation strategies in long-term power-sector planning.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2026.102290first seen 2026-06-29 04:52:29 · last seen 2026-06-29 04:52:35