Wildfire drives a net decrease in forest live biomass across the Western United States
山火事が米国西部の森林生体バイオマスを純減少させる (AI 翻訳)
Claire Zarakas, Grayson Badgley, Michael L. Goulden, James T. Randerson
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
森林火災による樹木死亡が西部米国の森林生体バイオマスを減少させており、従来の報告では捉えられていないトレンド反転を示した。リモートセンシングと統計モデルを融合し、2005-2022年の年次推計を提供。
English
This study fuses forest inventory data with satellite data to show that Western US forest live biomass declined by 5% from 2015 to 2022, driven by wildfire mortality. This trend was missed by official reports and challenges reliance on land carbon sinks for net-zero targets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は森林炭素吸収源の実態を明らかにし、日本の森林炭素会計や自然を活用した気候対策（NCS）の効果検証に示唆を与える。特に、バイオマス減少が進行している点は、日本の吸収源評価にも重要な知見となる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides timely evidence that Western US forests are becoming a net carbon source, with direct implications for jurisdictional carbon accounting and net-zero claims. It underscores the need for near-real-time monitoring of land carbon, relevant to global carbon accounting standards like those under the Paris Agreement and for corporate climate commitments relying on nature-based offsets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Important for carbon cycle modelers and land-carbon accounting researchers to update models with disturbance-driven trends.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams should note that reliance on forest offsets may be undermined by increasing wildfire risks.
🏛政策担当者:Key input for climate policy: land sink capacity is declining, requiring faster fossil fuel reductions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract It remains challenging to quantify recent changes in forest carbon due to lags in forest inventory measurements. The national U.S. forest inventory remeasures plots every five to ten years, so quantifying current carbon stocks using inventory data requires extrapolating from the last time plots were measured. We address this extrapolation challenge by fusing spatially explicit fire disturbance and canopy cover data from Landsat with forest inventory data using a statistical model. We produce annual estimates of live forest carbon across the Western U.S. from 2005 to 2022, and find that live forest biomass increased from 2005 to 2015, and then declined by 5% from 2015 to 2022 — a signal missed by both official U.S. reporting and Earth system models. The trend reversal was driven primarily by increasing tree mortality from wildfire, and secondarily by slowing rates of carbon accumulation in undisturbed areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for rapidly changing disturbance regimes, and can help to improve jurisdictional carbon accounting and inform the extent to which federal and state climate mitigation strategies can rely on land to achieve net-zero emissions targets. Significance statement Policy makers need to accurately and rapidly assess the status of the land carbon sink in order to make land management decisions and to assess progress towards climate commitments. However, lags in on-the-ground measurements make it challenging to do so, and it remains an open question whether Western U.S. forests are a net sink or a source of carbon. We fuse on-the-ground forest measurements with remote sensing data to show that live biomass is net declining in Western U.S. forests, and that this trend is driven primarily by increasing wildfire activity. This result challenges the idea that jurisdictions can rely on the land to offset fossil emissions, and supports tracking land carbon trends separately from fossil emissions inventories.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.30.720232first seen 2026-05-24 04:34:24 · last seen 2026-05-27 04:31:39
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