Physical Climate Risks, Firm Defaults, and Supply Chain Network Propagation
物理的気候リスク、企業デフォルト、サプライチェーンネットワーク伝播 (AI 翻訳)
Daniel Dao, A. Jindal, G. Shrimali
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、物理的気候リスクから期待される体系的な経済損失を定量化する将来予測フレームワークを開発し、インドの企業データを用いて適用した。物理的気候リスクは企業のデフォルトリスクを増加させ、サプライチェーンを通じて局所的な混乱を経済全体の損失に増幅することを示した。特に電力部門のサプライチェーンが損失の約3分の1を占め、その重要性が明らかになった。
English
This paper develops a forward-looking framework to quantify expected systemic economic losses from physical climate risks and applies it to Indian firm-level data. It shows that physical climate risks increase firm default risk, which propagates through supply chain networks, amplifying localized disruptions into economy-wide losses. The power sector supply chain accounts for nearly one-third of aggregate output losses, highlighting its systemic importance.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとって、インドなどの新興国におけるサプライチェーンを通じた気候リスクの波及は重要な経営課題となり得る。本論文のフレームワークは、日本企業のサプライチェーンリスク管理やTCFD開示におけるシナリオ分析の高度化に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global climate risk scholarship by modeling supply chain propagation of physical risks, a topic increasingly relevant under TCFD/ISSB disclosure frameworks. The focus on a developing economy like India offers insights for emerging markets where data and modeling are less developed.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The forward-looking framework for quantifying systemic losses from physical climate risks via supply chains offers a methodological contribution for climate risk modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Companies, especially those with supply chains in climate-vulnerable regions like India, can use the findings to assess and manage physical climate risks in their supply chain management.
🏛政策担当者:The results underscore the need for low-risk climate pathways and proactive supply chain management to maintain macroeconomic stability, relevant for central banks and financial regulators.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper develops a forward-looking framework to quantify expected systemic economic losses from physical climate risks and applies it to Indian firm-level data as a case study. We show that physical climate risks can threaten macroeconomic stability, particularly under highrisk scenarios, as physical climate risks increase firm default risk that propagates through supply chain networks, amplifying localized disruptions into economy-wide losses. The power sector supply chain accounts for nearly one-third of aggregate output losses across scenarios, signaling its importance in systemic impacts. Our results suggest the need for low-risk climate pathways and proactive supply chain management to mitigate systemic economic losses, particularly in developing economies such as India.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6071686first seen 2026-06-29 08:19:39
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