Ocean heat-oxygen-carbon coupling constrains the climate-driven carbon sink
海洋の熱-酸素-炭素結合が気候駆動の炭素吸収源を制約する (AI 翻訳)
Yuming Jin, Eric J. Morgan, Britton B. Stephens, Peter Landschützer, Tim DeVries
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、海洋循環逆モデル(OCIM)を用いて、海洋の熱・酸素・炭素フラックス間の結合係数を定量化し、気候変動に起因するCO2フラックスを独立に推定した。2005～2024年の観測データに基づき、気候駆動の正味CO2吸収は0.01 PgC/年とほぼゼロであり、全球炭素収支2025の海洋生物地球化学モデル(GOBM)が推定する0.16 PgC/年の放出源と有意に異なる。
English
This study uses the Ocean Circulation Inverse Model (OCIM) to quantify coupling coefficients between ocean heat, oxygen, and carbon fluxes, providing an independent constraint on climate-driven CO2 fluxes. From 2005-2024 observations, the net climate-driven CO2 uptake is near zero (0.01 ± 0.09 PgC/yr), significantly different from the 0.16 ± 0.05 PgC/yr source simulated by GOBM models in the Global Carbon Budget 2025.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、海洋吸収源の評価は国家温室効果ガスインベントリにおいて重要である。本論文は気候駆動の自然吸収源変動を独立に制約する手法を提供し、日本の炭素収支推定精度向上に寄与する可能性がある。
In the global GX context
Globally, this work improves understanding of the natural carbon cycle, which is essential for verifying anthropogenic CO2 budgets and informing climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement. It challenges current ocean model estimates in the Global Carbon Budget.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides observational constraints on climate-driven ocean carbon fluxes, useful for carbon cycle model evaluation.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights uncertainties in ocean carbon sink estimates, relevant for IPCC assessments and climate policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The ocean is the largest natural sink for anthropogenic CO 2 and excess heat, and this uptake drives its acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. Air-sea heat, oxygen, and carbon exchanges are linked through solubility and biological cycling, yet their budgets are built independently and rarely checked for consistency. Here we use the Ocean Circulation Inverse Model (OCIM) to quantify three coefficients that couple these budgets and constrain the climate-driven CO 2 flux independently of the anthropogenic sink. The thermal coupling of air-sea CO 2 flux to ocean heat content change is -0.167 ± 0.020 PgC (10 22 J) -1 , only 54% of the expected solubility-driven outgassing from warming, because waters subduct before equilibrating with the atmosphere. The corresponding thermal O 2 flux coefficient (-14.20 ± 0.38 Tmol (10 22 J) -1 ) achieves 96% of the solubility-driven response, reflecting the rapid O 2 equilibration. The non-thermal O 2 :CO 2 flux coupling coefficient (-2.24 ± 0.29) is more negative than the assumed Redfield O 2 :C ratio of -1.4, reflecting the slower equilibration of CO 2 . These coefficients, combined with observed ocean heat uptake and deoxygenation over 2005-2024, yield a thermal CO 2 outgassing of 0.20 ± 0.03 PgC yr -1 and a non-thermal CO 2 uptake of 0.20 ± 0.09 PgC yr -1 , giving a net climate-driven CO 2 uptake of 0.01 ± 0.09 PgC yr -1 , whereas the ocean biogeochemical models (GOBM) in the Global Carbon Budget 2025 (GCB2025) simulate a source of 0.16 ± 0.05 PgC yr -1 . Combined with the OCIM anthropogenic CO 2 sink estimate, our total ocean CO 2 uptake is significantly larger than the GOBM ensemble in GCB2025
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15006022/v1first seen 2026-07-15 05:07:17
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