Assessing the chronic physical risks of climate change for the financial sector: A case study from Mexico's central Bank
金融セクター向け気候変動の慢性的物理リスク評価：メキシコ中央銀行の事例研究 (AI 翻訳)
Francisco Estrada, Miguel A. Altamirano del Carmen, Óscar Calderón-Bustamante, Rodrigo Muñoz Sánchez, Alejandra Salazar, Luis O. L. Escobar-Farfán, W J Wouter Botzen, Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo, Stefano Battiston
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
メキシコ中央銀行が実施した包括的な気候リスク評価。空間的に明示的な統合評価モデルを用い、都市部と非都市部を区別して慢性的物理リスクを評価。商業銀行の融資ポートフォリオの曝露指数と、セクター別の気候関連負債リスクを試算。現在の政策シナリオでは、2100年までにGDPの35%超の経済損失と20兆ドル超の現在価値損失が生じる可能性。パリ協定整合シナリオでは大幅に減少。
English
Mexico's central bank conducted a comprehensive climate risk assessment using spatially explicit integrated assessment models, differentiating urban and non-urban areas to evaluate chronic physical risks. It constructs an exposure index for commercial bank loan portfolios and evaluates sectoral liability risks. Under current policies, economic losses could exceed 35% of Mexico's GDP by 2100 and surpass $20 trillion in present value. Paris-aligned scenarios substantially reduce these losses.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では気候変動の物理的リスク評価が金融機関に求められつつある。本論文は、空間解像度の高いモデルを用いて地域別・セクター別リスクを定量化する手法を提示しており、日本の地域金融機関や大手銀行が国内の浸水リスクや熱ストレス評価に応用できる。また、中央銀行の気候リスク評価事例として、日本銀行の取り組みにも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides a rigorous framework for assessing chronic physical climate risks in the financial sector, relevant to global initiatives like TCFD and NGFS. The spatial granularity and sectoral liability analysis offer methods applicable to other countries, including developed economies. It highlights the importance of integrating physical risk into financial stability monitoring, a key concern for central banks worldwide.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Spatially explicit integrated assessment model for financial sector physical risk; methodology transferable to other contexts.
🏢実務担当者:Framework for banks to assess loan portfolio exposure to chronic physical risks; useful for TCFD scenario analysis.
🏛政策担当者:Central banks can adopt similar integrated assessment for financial stability; highlights urban heat island effect and sectoral liability.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Mexico's Central Bank conducted a comprehensive climate risk assessment using a suite of global models to evaluate physical and transition risks. We focus on chronic physical risks, using a spatially explicit integrated assessment model that differentiates between urban and non-urban areas, capturing local climate impacts. Two complementary assessments are presented. First, we construct an index ranking the exposure of commercial bank loan portfolios based on local hazard, exposure and vulnerability measures. Second, we evaluate sectoral climate-related liability risk by attributing domestic/international economic damages from emissions using social-cost-of‑carbon estimates. Results reveal a strong concentration of chronic physical risk in central Mexico, highlighting the relevance of spatial granularity. We find substantial sectoral liability risks, particularly in the utilities and transportation sectors, driven largely by international damages. By incorporating multiple damage functions and probabilistic climate projections, we illustrate the uncertainty in impact estimates. Under a Current Policies scenario, economic losses could exceed 35% of Mexico's GDP by 2100 and surpass $20 trillion in present value, when accounting for the urban heat island effect. Paris-aligned scenarios substantially reduce these losses. This study emphasizes the usefulness of methods that exploit detailed, spatially explicit measures to improve estimation of exposure and liability risk of economic sectors.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.109119first seen 2026-07-09 05:02:06
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