Carbon Policy Effectiveness in Indonesia's Electricity Generation Subsector
インドネシア電力部門における炭素政策の有効性 (AI 翻訳)
Tasya Dwi, Farlian Putri, A. D. Syafei
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシア電力部門を対象にシステムダイナミクスモデルを構築し、炭素政策の効果をシミュレーション。2030年目標は達成可能だが、2060年ネットゼロには残存排出があり、石炭削減や再エネ拡大、移行金融の強化が必要。
English
This study uses system dynamics to model carbon policy effectiveness in Indonesia's electricity sector. Results show that medium-term 2030 targets are achievable, but the 2060 net-zero scenario still has residual emissions, requiring stronger integration of coal phase-down, renewable expansion, and transition finance.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
インドネシアは石炭依存度が高く、アジアのエネルギー移行のケースとして日本企業の海外事業やJCMとの関連で示唆がある。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on carbon policy effectiveness in a coal-dependent emerging economy, relevant for global transition finance and policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodological insights on applying system dynamics to energy policy evaluation in developing countries.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights policy risks and the need for enhanced mitigation measures in coal-dependent power systems.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates insufficiency of current policies for net zero and the need for stronger instruments.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change has increased the urgency of strengthening greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies in energy systems. In Indonesia, the electricity generation subsector is strategically important because it remains closely linked to fossil fuel use while also becoming a central arena of national energy transition policy. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model for simulating the effect of carbon policy on GHG emissions in Indonesia's electricity generation subsector, evaluating the effectiveness of existing carbon policy pathways, and formulating policy directions based on scenario results and policy lessons from selected countries. The study applies a quantitative system dynamics approach using Causal Loop Diagram and Stock and Flow Diagram modelling in Vensim. The model represents interactions among demographic drivers, electricity demand, fossil and renewable generation capacity, fossil fuel consumption, carbon policy variables, and GHG emissions. Three scenarios were simulated: a baseline scenario, a 2030 medium-term target scenario, and a 2060 Net Zero Emission scenario. Model validation using MAPE indicated acceptable historical fit for population and power-generation emission variables. The results show that the baseline follows a high-emission pathway under weak policy pressure. The 2030 scenario reduces emissions to 196.42 MtCO2, below the 250 MtCO2 target. However, the 2060 scenario still leaves 127 MtCO2e of residual emissions, indicating that the Net Zero target is not fully achieved. The findings suggest that carbon policy is effective in the medium term but requires stronger integration with coal phase-down, renewable expansion, MRV, enforcement, and transition finance for long-term mitigation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.51601/ijse.v6i2.679first seen 2026-07-13 06:43:22
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