The Macroeconomics of Climate Change and Public Debt Sustainability: Mapping Transition and Physical Risks Through Output Growth, Primary Balances, and Real Rates
気候変動のマクロ経済学と公的債務の持続可能性：生産量成長、プライマリーバランス、実質金利を通じた移行リスクと物理的リスクのマッピング (AI 翻訳)
Caterina Seghini
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
気候変動と低炭素移行が公的債務の持続可能性に与える影響をマクロ経済指標（生産量成長、プライマリーバランス、実質金利）を通して分析するレビュー論文。緩和策の短期的コストと遅延による長期的リスクの両方を考慮し、気候情報を組み込んだ債務持続可能性分析の重要性を論じる。
English
This review paper examines how climate change and the low-carbon transition affect sovereign debt sustainability through macroeconomic channels: output growth, primary balances, and real interest rates. It argues for integrating climate risks into debt sustainability analysis, balancing short-term costs of mitigation against long-term fiscal risks from delayed action.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では巨額の公的債務を抱える中で、気候変動政策（GX基本方針、カーボンプライシング）と財政持続性の両立が重要課題。本論文は移行コストと物理的リスクが財政に与える影響の理論的枠組みを提供し、日本のGX投資と財政政策の整合性検討に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper bridges climate and fiscal macroeconomics, relevant for global policymakers aligning NDCs and fiscal rules. It highlights how delayed transition increases debt risks, supporting the case for early, fiscally sustainable climate action.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:For researchers in climate macro-finance, this paper provides a structured review of integrating climate risks into debt sustainability models, identifying gaps and future directions.
🏢実務担当者:Fiscal policymakers and debt management offices can use this framework to assess climate-related fiscal risks in their sovereign debt sustainability analyses.
🏛政策担当者:Climate and finance ministers should consider the trade-offs between mitigation costs and long-term debt sustainability, as highlighted by this review.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change and the low‐carbon transition are increasingly shaping the macroeconomic conditions that underpin sovereign debt sustainability—namely, output growth, primary balances, and real interest rates. Mitigation policies entail short‐term costs that may interact with debt sustainability constraints, while delayed climate action risks undermining long‐term growth and eroding fiscal capacity. These dual pressures underscore the need for flexible and dynamic analytical tools capable of capturing compound risks to public debt. A growing body of literature has begun to integrate environmental risks into debt sustainability analysis, thereby expanding traditional macro‐fiscal frameworks. Advancing climate‐informed debt assessment is both an academic and political necessity that requires bridging the climate and fiscal literatures. This review aims to clarify this emerging field and provide a foundation for contributing to the intersection of climate and debt sustainability in macroeconomic modeling. The ability to design fiscally sustainable climate policies depends on it.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.70060first seen 2026-06-29 08:31:16
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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。