Dynamic least-cost pathways for rural China’s energy transition away from solid fuels
中国農村の固形燃料からのエネルギー転換における動的最適コスト経路 (AI 翻訳)
Likun Peng, Haoran Zhang, Jinyue Yan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、中国農村の24万8千集落、3億2390万住民を対象に、2025年から2060年までの5つのエネルギー転換オプション（パイプライン天然ガス、圧縮天然ガス、液化石油ガス、系統電力、分散型太陽光発電）の動的最適コスト経路を分析。早期のガスパイプライン拡大はライフサイクルコストを15～40％増加させ、2030年代初頭には系統電力と分散型太陽光が最適となることを示した。
English
This study develops a spatially explicit cost-benefit model for 248,000 rural settlements and 323.9 million residents in China, comparing five transition options from 2025 to 2060. It finds that piped natural gas is initially least-cost but loses advantage by the early 2030s due to rural depopulation and falling PV costs. Premature gas pipeline expansion raises lifetime system costs by 15-40%. The least-cost pathway shifts from natural gas to grid electricity and distributed photovoltaics.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の農村エネルギー転換に関する実証分析であり、日本の過疎地域でのエネルギー転換にも示唆を与える。ただし、日本の文脈では、人口減少と再生可能エネルギーのコスト低減の関係を考慮した政策設計が重要となる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a rigorous, spatially explicit model of rural energy transition that is highly relevant for global GX discussions, especially for developing countries with dispersed populations. The finding that premature gas infrastructure investment can lock in higher costs and become stranded due to falling renewables costs is a key caution for international investors and policymakers.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:GX researchers can leverage the spatially explicit cost-benefit modeling framework for analyzing energy transitions in other rural or depopulating regions.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can learn from the dynamic cost analysis to avoid lock-in effects of gas infrastructure and plan for distributed renewable solutions.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that subsidizing gas pipeline expansion in depopulating areas may lead to stranded assets; instead, support for grid and distributed PV is more cost-effective in the long term.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Rural communities in China still rely widely on coal and biomass, creating health, climate and development burdens. Choosing low-cost alternatives is difficult because infrastructure, population and technology costs change over time. Here we develop a spatially explicit cost–benefit model for 248,000 rural settlements, 323.9 million residents and more than 14 million records on infrastructure, energy prices and population change. We compare piped natural gas, compressed natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, grid electricity and distributed photovoltaic electricity from 2025 to 2060. Piped natural gas is the least-cost option for much of the rural population in 2025, but its advantage declines rapidly as rural depopulation weakens pipeline economies of scale and photovoltaic costs fall. By the early 2030 s, grid electricity followed by distributed photovoltaics becomes the lowest-cost sequence in many regions, while premature gas pipeline expansion raises lifetime system costs by 15–40%. Least-cost rural energy pathways shift from natural gas to photovoltaic electricity by the early 2030 s, with premature gas expansion raising lifetime costs by 15 to 40 percent, shown by simulating five transition options for 248000 Chinese settlements with 323.9 million residents from 2025 to 2060.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03663-0first seen 2026-05-24 04:57:37 · last seen 2026-05-27 04:52:43
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。