Public R&D support, financial instruments, and energy start-up ecosystems in Europe: Evidence on non-linear and delayed effects

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:This paper offers a rigorous econometric approach to analyzing the non-linear and lagged effects of policy on energy start-ups, useful for scholars studying innovation policy evaluation.

🏢実務担当者:Energy start-ups and investors can gain insights into how different types of public support (R&D vs. financial) affect start-up formation and funding, with implications for timing their engagement with policy programs.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that government R&D support may have crowding-out effects on green start-ups in the short to medium term, and that thresholds exist beyond which support becomes effective. Delayed positive effects from financial instruments suggest a need for patient capital.

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThe transition to climate neutrality in Europe increasingly depends on the capacity of public policy to stimulate innovation, entrepreneurship, and investment in the energy sector. This study aims to examine whether, and under what conditions, public R&D support and finance-related policy instruments are associated with energy-related start-up activities and financing across European and neighboring economies, while accounting for delayed, non-linear, and country-specific effects. The analysis is based on panel data for 37 countries over the period 2018–2023. The study employs fixed-effects, PPML, lagged, and quadratic specifications. The findings suggest weak short-term associations between policy support and energy start-up outcomes, while several delayed and non-linear patterns emerge. Two-year lagged estimations reveal significant delayed associations: government support is negatively associated with green start-ups (–0.0072) and digital start-ups (–0.0114), which may reflect crowding-out mechanisms or reactive policy behaviour, although these explanations are not directly tested. In contrast, finance-related support is positively associated with digital energy start-ups after two years (0.0225). Funding models show weaker transmission effects, although government support is negatively associated with early-stage green funding (–0.0605). Quadratic specifications reveal meaningful thresholds for government support at 51.33, 93.71 and 107.39 in baseline models and between 80.80 and 158.28 points in lagged models. The results suggest that policy–start-up relationships vary by timing, intensity, support type, and start-up segment. This highlights the scientific value of analyzing public support as a delayed, non-linear and context-dependent mechanism rather than as a simple direct stimulus.AcknowledgmentThis article was prepared based on the results of the project 101127491-EnergyS4UA-ERASMUS-JMO2023-HEI-TCH-RSCH. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Education and Culture Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.23(2).2026.31first seen 2026-07-09 05:05:43