A Dynamic Panel Threshold Approach to Decarbonization by Neutral Fiscal Policy: Application to the OECD
中立財政政策による脱炭素化への動的パネル閾値アプローチ：OECDへの適用 (AI 翻訳)
Feridoon Koohi-Kamali, Willi Semmler, Samuel Owusu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候変動対策としての自己資金型の課税・補助金政策がCO2排出削減、GDP、雇用に与える影響を分析。2つのレジームを持つCO2閾値自己回帰モデルを用い、1995～2018年のOECD16カ国のデータに適用。結果、税と補助金の同額セットがCO2削減レジームを優位にし、生産と雇用に有意な影響を与えることを示す。
English
This paper examines the output and employment impacts of a self-financed climate taxation/subsidy policy on CO2 reduction. Using a two-regime CO2-based threshold autoregressive model on 16 OECD countries (1995-2018), it finds that equal amounts of tax and subsidy yield a dominant CO2-reducing regime with significant marginal policy effects on output and employment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、炭素税や排出量取引の議論が進む中、本論文の「中立財政政策」アプローチは、財政中立性を保ちながら脱炭素を進める枠組みとして参考になる。特に、生産や雇用への影響を定量的に示している点が、政策立案の際に有用。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global discourse on climate fiscal policy by demonstrating that a self-financed tax-subsidy scheme can simultaneously reduce emissions and maintain economic output. Its panel threshold approach offers a novel empirical framework for evaluating policy effectiveness across countries.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of a neutral fiscal policy for decarbonization using a dynamic panel threshold model.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights that a self-financed tax-subsidy policy can reduce CO2 emissions without adverse effects on GDP and employment, offering a viable policy tool.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper addresses the output and employment impacts of a climate self-financed taxation/subsidy policy on CO2 emission reduction. We model balanced climate fiscal expenditure using a two-regime CO2-based threshold autoregressive model that separates periods of rising emissions by positive CO2 log-differences and of falling emissions by negative CO2 log-differences. Applied to data sets for 16 OECD countries over 23 years (1995–2018), we find that self-financing equal amounts of tax and subsidy over the lifespan of the data set yields a CO2-reducing regime that dominates, with significant threshold and marginal policy impacts on both output and employment. The policy impacts, as shown by the panel data variance decomposition forecast, indicate that the policy shock to total output variance outweighs other effects for up to three years, and to total employment variance for up to four years. The assessment of a two-regime/threshold model of neutral fiscal policy constitutes our contribution to the literature.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics14030033first seen 2026-07-03 06:16:09
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