Geopolitical disruptions and maritime transitions: Environmental and economic costs of rerouting
地政学的混乱と海上交通の変革：ルート変更の環境的・経済的コスト (AI 翻訳)
Ruikai Sun, W. Abouarghoub, Emrah Demir, Andrew Potter
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、2024年の紅海危機による船舶の航路変更が環境・経済に与える影響を分析。AISデータとモデリングを用いて、喜望峰経由の航路ではGHG排出量が46%、コストが51%増加することを示す。LNG燃料や陸上電力などの変革的イノベーションは排出量を最大33%削減できる一方、漸進的対策の効果は限定的である。
English
This study analyzes the environmental and economic impacts of rerouting shipping due to the 2024 Red Sea crisis. Using AIS data and modeling, it finds GHG emissions increase by 46% and costs by 51% when vessels take the Cape of Good Hope route. It shows that transformative innovations like LNG and shore power can mitigate emissions by up to 33%, while incremental measures have limited effect.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は海運大国であり、地政学的リスクがサプライチェーンやGHG排出に与える影響は極めて重要。本研究は、SSBJやカーボンプライシングの議論に示唆を与える。特に、日本企業の海運戦略や燃料転換投資の評価に有用。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how geopolitical crises can disrupt shipping and affect decarbonization. It is relevant to global efforts under IMO's GHG strategy, and highlights the need for transformative innovation over incremental measures. Useful for TCFD/ISSB scenario analysis and transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This study bridges transition theory and operational modeling, offering a framework for analyzing crisis-induced disruptions in shipping decarbonization.
🏢実務担当者:Shipping companies can use these findings to evaluate the environmental and cost trade-offs of rerouting and to prioritize investment in transformative technologies like LNG and shore power.
🏛政策担当者:The results underscore the urgency of supporting transformative innovation in shipping to achieve GHG reductions under geopolitical uncertainty, relevant for IMO and national policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the environmental, operational and economic implications of crisis-induced rerouting in maritime shipping, focusing on the 2024 Red Sea crisis as a case study. Contributing to the literature by linking operational modelling with transition theory, offering new insights into how geopolitical crises can accelerate or constrain sustainability transitions in global ship-ping. Within the socio-technical transitions framework, it explores how landscape-level geopo-litical disruptions interact with regime inertia and create opportunities for niche innovation. Using an activity-based bottom-up model integrated with AIS data, the study quantifies GHG emissions, costs and voyage durations for vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, covering three major Eurasian routes (Asia – West Europe, Asia – West Mediterranean, and Asia – East Mediterranean). Emissions cost analysis is combined with scenario modelling to assess trade-offs be-tween environmental and economic impacts across different innovation pathways. Results show that rerouting increases GHG emissions at least 46 %, economic cost at least 51 % of entire route fleet and extends round-trip durations by 20 – 34 days. Despite this, most shipping companies increased vessels ’ speeds, reflecting institutional inertia that prioritises short-term efficiency over sustainability. Scenario simulations reveal that incremental innovations (e.g. operation optimisation) reduce excess emissions by 8 – 10 %. Whereas, transformative innovations such as LNG fuel and shore power cut emissions by up to 23 %, with combined deployment achieving up to 33 % reductions. These findings highlight the limited impact of incremental measures under sustained disruption and underscore the potential of transformative innovations to accelerate sustainability transitions in global shipping.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2025.104737first seen 2026-06-29 06:16:54
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