Carbon dioxide removal prices and the challenge of emissions trading system integration
炭素除去価格と排出量取引制度統合の課題 (AI 翻訳)
Leonie Meissner, Josh Burke, Luca Taschini
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本報告書は、耐久性のある炭素除去（CDR）の価格と契約量に関する世界初の体系的な評価を提供する。2025年末時点で契約されたCDRの1.2%しか実際に納入されておらず、CDRクレジットの価格はEU・英国ETSの炭素価格の数倍高い。学習率が低く、コスト削減の構造的ボトルネックが存在する。英国が2029年までにCDRをETSに統合するためには、炭素差額契約（CCfD）が不可欠である。
English
This report provides one of the first systematic assessments of durable CDR prices and contract volumes. As of end-2025, only 1.2% of contracted CDR has been delivered, and CDR credit prices are several times higher than UK/EU ETS carbon prices. Low learning rates suggest structural bottlenecks. To integrate CDR into the UK ETS by 2029, Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) are essential, with estimated annual subsidies of ~$199 million between 2028-2032.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX文脈では、炭素除去（CDR）は2050年ネットゼロ達成の重要な要素だが、国内ではまだ市場形成が進んでいない。本論文は、CDR価格とETS統合の課題を実証データで示し、日本がCDRを排出量取引制度に組み込む際の政策設計に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Globally, CDR is recognized as essential for net zero, but its integration into carbon markets is challenging. This paper provides empirical evidence on pricing dynamics and the need for policy instruments like CCfD, relevant for jurisdictions considering CDR inclusion in ETS (e.g., EU, UK).
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides systematic empirical data on CDR pricing and learning rates across major methods and geographies.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the cost gap between current CDR prices and carbon market prices, emphasizing the need for long-term contracts like CCfD to incentivize investment.
🏛政策担当者:Informs policy design for integrating CDR into emissions trading systems, with specific subsidy cost estimates for the UK case.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Meeting net zero emissions by 2050 will require large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) — technologies that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it durably in the Earth’s geosphere. However, the market for durable CDR (methods that store captured carbon for centuries to millennia) is still in its early stages, with limited deployment, high costs and little public data on pricing. To address this evidence gap, the authors of this report analyse a consolidated dataset covering 43 million tonnes of contracted durable CDR across all major methods and geographies. This provides one of the first system-wide assessments of prices and contract volumes. The findings show that a rapid upscaling of CDR deployment is necessary. By the end of 2025, only 1.2% of contracted durable CDR had actually been delivered. Prices for CDR credits remain several times higher than carbon prices in the UK and EU Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) — the markets used to price emissions allowances. Crucially, expected learning rates — the cost reductions typically achieved through doubling of capacity — are very low or even negative for most methods. This suggests the existence of structural bottlenecks rather than technological maturity. As a result, durable CDR costs are unlikely to converge with ETS carbon prices in the near term and may in fact diverge further. These findings have direct implications for the UK Government’s ambition to integrate CDR into the UK ETS by 2029. Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) — long-term government contracts that guarantee a fixed price for carbon removal — will be essential to bridge the gap between current market prices and the cost of CDR. Our estimates suggest that annual subsidy costs could reach approximately US$199 million (around £147 million) between 2028 and 2032 and increase significantly as removal targets scale up.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.21953/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00138706first seen 2026-07-03 04:58:13
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