Economic Value of Virtual Heat Plant Flexibility Under Network-Critical Conditions: A Stakeholder Analysis

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Demonstrates a quantified framework for VHP value across stakeholders; useful for energy systems modeling and policy design research.

🏢実務担当者:Provides benchmark value ranges for DNO flexibility procurement and highlights the need for aggregator mechanisms; relevant for energy utilities and heat pump installers.

🏛政策担当者:Shows current market structures fail to capture flexibility value; recommends policy reforms for residential aggregator access and cost-reflective network charges.

Hybrid heating systems that switch between gas boilers and heat pumps can provide demand-side flexibility, but the economic case for coordinated Virtual Heat Plant (VHP) participation remains poorly quantified across stakeholder groups. This paper analyses the economics of VHP coordination under network-critical winter conditions using a 100-dwelling neighbourhood case study with detailed half-hourly energy price and carbon intensity data in Edinburgh, Scotland, UK. Under extreme cold temperatures (-2.5 to +0.5◦C), coordinating 20 hybrid households eliminates network thermal violations, reducing peak transformer loading from 104.5% to 86.3%. Daily operating costs reduce by 3% compared to uncoordinated heat pump operation, while carbon emissions decrease by 15.7% relative to gas-only heating. We quantify value across three stakeholder groups using marketbased pricing. Participating households capture £55 annually through direct energy savings. Using published DNO flexibility procurement prices, the network deferral value was estimated as £264-400/year per hybrid household. Carbon emission reductions of 0.44 tCO2/year per hybrid household represents £44 at projected carbon prices. Total potential value of VHP reaches £363-499 per hybrid household per year. Critically, current market structures capture only 13% of this value. Energy savings flow to households, but no mechanism exists to compensate residential flexibility provision. Sensitivity analysis shows network deferral value dominates the economic savings, with DNO flexibility prices driving a £136/year (±16%) swing in total value. Realising full economic potential requires policy reform: residential aggregator access to local flexibility markets, cost-reflective network charges, or explicit DNO-household payment mechanisms to incentivise local flexibility. These findings highlight the policy gap preventing VHP deployment despite the demonstrated technical feasibility and potential economic, technical and environmental value.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20689489first seen 2026-07-04 04:33:56 · last seen 2026-07-04 04:35:26